Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities closed with mixed results on March 28. The DJI increased by +0.12%, the S&P 500 edged up by +0.11%, and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.12%.
• Thursday, the last trading day of Q1, saw varied outcomes as the S&P reached a new high. The market was buoyed by the revised fourth-quarter GDP report, which surpassed expectations, and a decrease in the core PCE price deflator. Energy stocks led the overall market surge, with crude oil prices jumping over +2% to a one-week high.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields moved flat at 4.20%, while 2-yr yields jumped by +5.0 bps to 4.59%. Bond yields were pushed higher by hawkish remarks from Fed’s Waller and further bolstered by the release of strong economic reports.
• The US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly dropped by 2,000 to 210,000, indicating a stronger labor market compared to the expected increase to 212,000.
• US Q4 GDP was revised upward to +3.4%, exceeding expectations of an unrevised +3.2%, while Q4 personal consumption rose to 3.3%, stronger than the anticipated unrevised 3.0%. However, the Q4 core PCE price index was revised lower to +2.0%, falling short of expectations of +2.1%.
• On Friday, the US Feb-24 PCE price index rose by 0.3% MoM, below the forecasted 0.4%. Core PCE inflation, ex-food and energy, also slowed to 0.3% MoM, meeting expectations. The annual PCE inflation rate reached 2.5% YoY, in line with forecasts, while the core inflation rate dropped to 2.8% YoY, marking the lowest in about three years.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday; The German 10-yr bund yield rose by +0.6 bps to 2.29%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield edged up by +0.1 bps to 3.93% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed down by -1.4 bps to 0.71%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed mixed on March 28, with the 10-yr benchmark yield down by -1.83 bps to 6.69%, while the 2-yr yield surged by +1.48 bps to 6.31%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD on Thursday’s close (USD/IDR fell by -0.01% to 15,865). The Rupiah strengthened ahead of the market closure for Good Friday, while the DXY rose 0.16% to 104.52.
• Bank Indonesia reported that based on settlements up to March 27, 2024, foreign flows recorded a net sell of IDR33.31tn in the government bond (SBN) market, while net purchases amounted to IDR28.90tn in the stock market and IDR20.05tn in the SRBI.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR100 and FR101 garnered considerable interest in outright transactions, with substantial trade volumes of IDR4.15tn and IDR2.91tn, respectively. Additionally, FR102, FR81 and FR100 saw high trading frequency.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0095, FR0101, FR0096, FR0098.
Disclaimer On
