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Company Update

25 April 2024

Fixed Income Report April 25, 2024

Global Market Updates  
• Wall Street equities closed mixed on April 24, with the DJI fell by -0.11%, the S&P 500 edged by +0.02%, and the Nasdaq closed up by +0.10%.
• US stock indexes saw a modest gains on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting 1-week highs. The tech sector's strength buoyed the overall market. However, broader market gains were tempered by the pressure from rising bond yields.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields advanced by +4.0 bps to 4.65%, while 2-yr yields grew by +3.0 bps to 4.89%. Bond yield edged higher on Wednesday, T-notes prices were pressured by declining 10-year German bunds and supply pressures from the Treasury’s USD70bn auction of 5-year T-notes, resulting in moderate losses with tepid demand. 
• US Mar capital goods new orders nondefense ex-aircraft and parts, which is considered a proxy for capital spending, increased by +0.2% MoM, meeting expectations.
• US weekly MBA mortgage applications dropped by -2.7% for the week ending April 19, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbing to a 5-month high of 7.24%, up from 7.13% in the previous week.
• In Europe, the IFO business climate indicator for Germany climbed to 89.4 in April 2024, exceeding market expectations of 88.9 and marking the third consecutive month of increases.
• Global bond yields moved higher on Wednesday; The German bond yield rose by +8.6 bps to 2.58%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield surged by +9.30 bps to 4.33% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +1.60 bps to 0.91%.
 
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed higher on April 24, with the 10-yr benchmark yield  edged up by +0.08 bps to 7.04%, while the 2-yr yield remained unchanged at 6.86%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD at Wednesday’s close (USD/IDR slid by -0.41% to 16,154). The Rupiah received support from the BI rate hike, which is expected to stabilize currency amidst worsening global risks.
• Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised its interest rate by 25 bps to 6.25% at its April 2024 meeting, contrary to market expectations of no change. We note BI’s swift response to support the Rupiah amidst ongoing pressures, leading to a widened gap between the BI rate and the FFR to 75 bps. The outcome is anticipated to drive higher bond yields.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0096 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR4.82tn and IDR2.95tn, respectively. Furthermore, FR0100, FR0101, and PBS038 saw high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.05% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0095, FR0101, FR0087, FR0096. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR95 FR101 FR87 FR96

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