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RESEARCH

Company Update

26 April 2024

Fixed Income Report April 26, 2024

Global Market Updates  
• Wall Street equities closed lower on April 25, with the DJI declined by -0.98%, the S&P 500 fell by -0.46%, and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.64%.
• US stocks saw moderate decline on Thursday, led by weakness in the tech sector. Bond yields surged on signs of persistent inflation and a strong labor market data, stirred Fed policy concerns. Additionally, stagflation fears intensified due to a larger-than-expected downward revision to US Q1 GDP.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields increased by +5.0 bps to 4.70%, while 2-yr yields surged by +7.0 bps to 4.96%. Both yield  reached their highest levels since November at their session highs.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly dropped by -5,000 to reach a 2-month low of 207,000, indicating a stronger labor market compared to expectations of an increase to 215,000.
• US Q1 GDP was revised downward to 1.6% from 3.4%, falling short of expectations of 2.5%. This revision was driven by a lower Q1 personal consumption, revised to 2.5% from 3.3%, below expectations of 3.0%. Additionally, the Q1 core PCE price index was revised upward to +3.7% from +2.0%, surpassing expectations of +3.4%.
• Meanwhile in Europe, the German GfK consumer confidence index for May surged by +3.1 points to reach a 2-year high of -24.2, surpassing expectations of -26.0.
• Global bond yields moved higher on Thursday; The German bond yield rose by +8.6 bps to 2.58%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield surged by +9.30 bps to 4.33% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +1.60 bps to 0.91%.
 
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed higher on April 25, with the 10-yr benchmark yield  surged by +2.85 bps to 7.07%.
• The IDR depreciated against the USD at Thursday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.21% to 16,188). The Rupiah weakened ahead of tonight’s US PCE price index release, as markets anticipate the Fed’s hawkish stance, bolstering the USD.
• In Mar-24, the M2 position reached IDR8,88 trillion, showing a 7.2% YoY growth, higher than the 5.3% YoY growth observed in Feb-24. This increase in M2 was driven by the expansion in credit disbursement, which grew by +11.8% YoY, and net claims to the central government, which rose by +18.0% YoY.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0100 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR5.22tn and IDR3.64tn, respectively. Furthermore, PBS038, FR0100, and FR0096 saw high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.90-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0064, FR0101, FR0087, FR0096. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR64 FR101 FR87 FR96

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