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Company Update

29 April 2024

Fixed Income Report April 29, 2024

Global Market Updates  
• Wall Street equities rallied on April 26, with the DJI surged by +0.40%, the S&P 500 advanced by +1.02%, and the Nasdaq closed up by +2.03%. 
• US stock indexes surged, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching recent highs, buoyed by strong tech earnings. Despite growing concerns over the Fed’s interest rates stance, markets held onto gains, even as March personal spending and core PCE deflator exceeded expectations.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields declined by -3.0 bps to 4.67%, while 2-yr yields remained unchanged at 4.96%. T-notes prices rose moderately as concerns about inflation eased, driven by the unchanged of the US March PCE core deflator at +2.8% YoY, consistent with February.
• In March, the US PCE price Index saw a 0.3% MoM increase, matching February's figure and meeting market forecasts. The annual rate rose to 2.7%, exceeding expectations of 2.6%. Meanwhile, the annual core inflation rate remained unchanged at 2.8%, against market expectations of a decrease to 2.6%.
• In April, the University of Michigan's US Consumer Sentiment Index was revised downward to 77.2, below the expected 77.9. One-year inflation expectations rose to +3.2% from +3.1%, while five to ten-year expectations remained at 3.0%.
• Meanwhile in Asia, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Tokyo, a key indicator of national price trends, rose by 1.6% YoY in April. This growth rate represents a slowdown from the previous month's 2.4% increase and falls short of the median forecast for a 2.2% rise.
• Global bond yields moved lower on Friday; The German bond yield fell by -5.5 bps to 2.57%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield slid by -3.80 bps to 4.32% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed down by -0.80 bps to 0.89%.
 
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed higher on April 26, with the 10-yr benchmark yield  jumped by +8.70 bps to 7.16%.
• The IDR depreciated against the USD at Friday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.14% to 16,210). The USD strengthened against most major Asian currencies by the week’s end, while the DXY corrected to reach 105.51.
• In Q1-24 APBN reports, state revenue decreased -4.1% YoY to IDR620.01tn (22.1% of the annual target), while government spending jumped +18% YoY to IDR611.9tn, driven by front-loading expenditures, including those related to elections (18.4% of the total budget). Nonetheless, the state budget still maintains a surplus of IDR8.1tn, or 0.04% of GDP, with a primary surplus of IDR122.1tn.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0101 and FR0100 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of IDR4.62tn and IDR3.68tn, respectively. Furthermore, FR0098, FR0100, and FR0096 saw high trading frequency.
 
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.90-7.15% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0064, FR0087, FR0096, FR0098. 
 
 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR64 FR87 FR96 FR98

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