Global Market Update
• Majority yield on the benchmark of UST notes slightly increased starting this week ahead of FOMC meeting.
• Yield on the benchmark of 10-year UST note increased 3 bps to 3.61% on Monday (12/12/22).
• Yield on the short term bond (UST 2-year) also increased 3 bps to 4.38% bringing 2/10 year spread at -77 bps.
• US equity market rebounded sharply. The DJI rose 1.58%; S&P 500 increased 1.43% and Nasdaq Composite was up 1.26%.
• The Fed is expected to raise FFR to 4.25-4.50% by Dec-22 with the probability of 74.7% according to CME FedWatch.
Domestic Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year Indo GB yield (FR0091) was slightly flat at 6.92% on Monday (12/12/22).
• Indonesia’s 5-year CDS is now stood at above 100 bps last week. Risk perception weakened as 5-year CDS increased from 90 bps in the previous week.
• The IDR weakened against USD to 15,628/USD last week vs 15,583/USD on the previous week.
• On the data front, domestic car sales in Nov-2022 reached 91,086 units, down from 93,197 units in Oct-2022.
• Although it decreased -2.3% MoM, cumulatively up to 11M22, total domestic car sales has reached 942,449 units, up +19.2% YoY (vs 790,529 units in 11M21).
• With a sales target in FY22E of 960,000 units, the realization up to 11M22 reached 98.2%.
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 6.90-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0070, FR0077, FR0037, FR0042, FR0047, FR0091, FR0096.
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