Global Market Update
• Yield on the benchmark of 10-year UST note climbed 7 bps to 3.49% on Thursday (12/08/22).
• Yield on the short term bond (UST 2-year) also increased 5 bps to 4.31% bringing 2/10-year spread at -82 bps.
• US equity was rebounded yesterday. The DJI rose 0.55%; S&P 500 was up 0.75% and Nasdaq Composite increased 1.13%.
• US initial jobless claims came at 230,000 on the week ended December, 3 2022, in-line with consensus estimate.
• The Fed is expected to raise FFR to 4.25-4.50% by Dec-22 with the probability of 75.8% according to CME FedWatch.
Domestic Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year Indo GB yield (FR0091) decreased 3 bps to 6.94% on Thursday (12/08/22).
• The decrease in yield was in-line with improving risk perception and IDR appreciation against USD.
• Indonesia’s 5-year CDS is now stood at 103.86 bps yesterday, better than 104.53 bps in the previous day.
• The IDR strengthened against USD to 15,621/USD yesterday vs 15,637/USD on Wednesday.
•Bank Indonesia (BI) reported Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) decreased 1.2 points to 119.1 in Nov-22 (vs 120.3 in Oct-22).
• Despite remains optimistic on domestic economy, consumer sentiment weakens particularly driven by income & economic outlook.
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 6.90-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0070, FR0077, FR0037, FR0042, FR0047, FR0091, FR0096.
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