Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities ended Thursday on a high note (Feb 22, 2024), with the DJI surge by +1.18%, followed by S&P 500 up by +2.11%, while Nasdaq advanced by +2.96%.
• Stock indexes made significant gains, with the S&P 500 and DJI Average setting new records, and the Nasdaq 100 reaching a 1-1/2 week high. Nvidia's stock surge by more than 15%, leading a rally in chip stocks, after reporting exceptional results that bolstered confidence in its AI technologies.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields rose by +1.0 bps to 4.33% followed by 2-yr yields up by +5.0 bps at 4.69% on Thursday. The 2-yr yields surged in response to the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts, as indicated in the meeting minutes.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims dropped by 12,000 to 201,000, reaching a 5-week low, highlighting a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 216,000.
• The US Jan Chicago Fed National Activity Index, a gauge for economic activity, declined by 0.32% to -0.30, falling short of expectations of -0.21.
• The US Feb S&P manufacturing PMI climbed by 0.8% to reach a 17-month high of 51.5, beating expectations of no change at 50.7. Additionally, US January existing home sales surged by 3.1% to a 5-month high of 4.00mn units, surpassing expectations of 3.97mn units.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday; The German bund 10-yr yield fell by -1.8 bps to 2.43%, and the UK gilt 10-yr yield rose by +0.2 bps to 4.11%. The Japanese JGB 10-yr yield closed down by -0.60 at 0.72%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed higher on Thursday (Feb 22, 2024), with the 10-yr benchmark yield fell -2.03 bps to 6.57%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD (USD/IDR fell by -0.29% to 15,590). The Rupiah found support by the Fed meeting minutes as the DXY slipped by -0.37% to 103.62.
• Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BoP) for 2023 recorded a surplus of USD6.3bn, up from the previous year’s USD4.0bn, driven mainly by robust capital and financial transactions. While, the Current Account Deficit (CAD) in 2023 recorded USD1.6bn (0.1% of GDP), following a surplus of USD13.2bn (1.0% of GDP) in 2022.
• The BI RDG announcement noted that the foreign exchange reserve position at the end of December 2023 increased to USD146.4bn, compared to USD137.2bn at the end of December 2022.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR101 and FR100 were prominent in the bond market, with substantial trade volumes of IDR2.08 trillion and IDR1.79 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, FR81, FR72, and FR77 saw notable trading activity.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0056, FR00101, FR0091, FR097.
Disclaimer On
