Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities posted losses on Feb 26, with the DJI slipped by -0.16%, followed by S&P 500 which closed down by -0.38%, while Nasdaq edged down by -0.13%.
• Stock indexes closed lower, consolidating below last week's record highs. Rising bond yields, driven by supply pressures, contributed to the bearish sentiment. Investors are now focused on key US economic data this week, including February consumer confidence, revised Q4 GDP, and the January core PCE price index.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields up by +2.0 bps to 4.28% followed by 2-yr yields up by +2.0 bps at 4.69% on Monday. Treasury yields inched higher on Monday, with investors eagerly awaiting key economic data releases later in the week for clues on interest rate trajectories and economic conditions.
• US January new home sales rose 1.5% to 661,000, below the expected 684,000, while the February Dallas Fed manufacturing activity outlook survey surged 16.1 points to -11.3, surpassing the forecasted -15.0.
• Global bond yields were mostly up on Monday; The German bund 10-yr yield rose by +7.7 bps to 2.44%, and the UK gilt 10-yr yield jumped by +12.5 bps to 4.16%. The Japanese JGB 10-yr yield slipped by -3.40 bps to 0.69%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed lower on Monday (Feb 26, 2024), with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose +0.55 bps to 6.56%.
• The IDR depreciated against the USD (USD/IDR rose by +0.22% to 15,630) at Monday’s close. The rupiah continued to weaken alongside the DXY, edging down to 103.88.
• The government targeted the 2025 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) deficit to be in the range of 2.45% to 2.8% of GDP. This target marks an increase from the 2024 APBN deficit plan of 2.29% of GDP, with the additional funding allocated for the free lunch program proposed by the leading presidential candidate.
• The government will hold a SUN Auction on Feb 27, with an indicative target of IDR24tn. The series to auctioned are SPN12240529, SPN12250213, FR101, FR100, FR98, FR97, and FR102.
• In Monday's Indo-GB series trading, PBS38 and FR100 were prominent in the bond market, with substantial trade volumes of IDR2.69 trillion and IDR1.25 trillion, respectively. Meanwhile, FR81, FR77, and PBS36 saw notable trading activity.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.50-6.65% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0056, FR00101, FR0091, FR097.
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