Global Market Update
• Yields on UST note increased along the curve on the last day trading of previous week.
• However, compared to the first week of Jan-23, UST note yields were relatively lower.
• Yield on benchmark 10-year UST note increased 7 bps to 3.51% on Friday (01/13/23).
• Yield on the benchmark 2-year UST note increased 9 bps to 4.24% at the same time.
• US technology stocks recorded a 5-day straight increased last week. Nasdaq Composite posted 4.17% weekly gain in the second week of Jan-23.
• Nasdaq Composite year-to-date recorded a gain of 6.66%, reversing last year worst performance on the back of slowing inflation and possibility of slowing rate hike going forward.
Domestic Market Update
• Yield on the benchmark 10-year Indo GB (FR0096) continued to fall. Yield dropped 6 bps to 6.67% on Friday (01/13/23).
• The decrease in Indo GB yields was also supported by IDR appreciation against USD and lower CDS.
• The IDR strengthened against USD and was closed at IDR15,149/USD on Friday (vs IDR 15,339/USD on Thursday).
• On the other hand, the 5-year Indo CDS slightly declined to below 90 bps and stood at 89.12 bps.
• BI reported non-residents net bought SBN of IDR16.31tn while net sold domestic equity amounting to IDR5.32tn through 12 Jan 23.
• Consensus estimate Indonesia’s trade balance to record a surplus of USD4.01bn in Dec-22 driven by rising exports (+6.65% YoY) and decreasing imports (-7.58% Yo).
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 6.60-6.80% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0063, FR0070, FR0077, FR0044, FR0085 and FR0096.
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