Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities settled mixed on Tuesday’s close (Jan 30, 2024). DJI rose by +0.35%, S&P 500 slid by -0.06%, and Nasdaq closed down by -0.76%.
• Stocks closed with a mixed gains, and DJI reached a new record high. Tuesday's US economic reports, highlighting economic resilience, boosted confidence in the Fed’s ability to achieve a soft landing. The market is now looking ahead to the 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields fell by -2 bps to 4.06%, and 2-yr yields rose by +7 bps to 4.36% on Tuesday. 10-yr yields declined as investors awaited signals from the Fed following the conclusion of this week’s FOMC meeting.
• Meanwhile, The IMF has raised its 2024 global GDP forecast to 3.1%, up from the 2.9% projection in October.
• The US Nov S&P CoreLogic Composite-20 Home Price Index rose by +5.4% YoY, marking the largest increase in a year.
• The Conference Board US Jan-24 CCI rose +6.8 to a two-year high of 114.8, in line with expectations.
• US Dec JOLTS job openings unexpectedly rose to 9.02mn, surpassing expectations of a decline to 8.75mn.
• European stock climbed after Q4 Eurozone GDP was revised upward to unchanged to 0% q/q and +0.1% YoY. Eurozone Dec economic confidence came stronger than expectations of 96.1 up from 96.2.
• Japan Dec jobless rate unexpectedly dropped by -0.1 to an 11-month low of 2.4%, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated stability at 2.5%
• Global bond yields were mixed on Tuesday; the German bund 10-yr yield rose by +3.3 bps to 2.26%, while the UK gilt 10-yr yield up by +2.50 bps to 3.90%. The Japanese GB 10-yr yield closed down by -0.60 at 0.72%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed higher on Tuesday (Jan 30, 2024), with the 10-yr benchmark yield fell -2.56 bps to 6.60%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD (USD/IDR fell by -0.19% to 15,780) at Tuesday’s close. IDR strengthened for three consecutive days, we observe BI’s stability policy and pro-market strategy actively supporting the Rupiah, attracting foreign flows into the domestic market and easing pressure on the IDR.
• During Tuesday’s SUN auction, investors exhibited considerable interest, securing winning bids totaling IDR24tn out of the IDR73.24tn total bid. Furthermore, FR101 secured the highest awarded bid, boasting a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.07 and winning IDR8.35tn from the total bid of IDR25.61tn.
• Investors welcomed Tuesday’s SVBI auction, securing USD472mn in awarded bids out of a total bid of USD512mn. The bidding rates showed a wider range compared to the previous auction, where USD251mn was awarded from a USD397mn bid total,
• On Tuesday’s Indo-GB series trading, FR100 and FR101 were notable in the bond market, experiencing high trade volumes of IDR15.50tn and IDR7.49tn, respectively. Moreover, FR102 and FR100 exhibited significant trading frequency.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0091, FR0096, FR0100 FR101.
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