Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities moved lower on March 14, with the DJI closed down by -0.35, the S&P 500 closed down by -0.29%, and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.30%.
• US stocks closed slightly lower on Thursday as bearish PPI and retail sales reports emerged. These reports hinted at the potential emergence of stagflation, with the PPI exceeding expectations and the retail sales falling short.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields jump by +10.0 bps to 4.29%, while by 2-yr yields surged by +7.0 bps to 4.68%. Thursday's reports led to a slight decrease in June rate cut expectations, boosting the rise in the 10-yr yield.
• Weekly US initial unemployment claims fell by 1k to 209k, indicating a stronger labor market than expected, as forecasts anticipated a rise to 218k. Continuing claims rose by 17,000 to 1.81mn from a revised 1.79mn (preliminary 1.90mn), surpassing expectations of 1.90mn and suggesting a robust labor market.
• February's US retail sales rose by 0.6% MoM, falling short of market expectations of 0.8%, and January's figure was revised down to -1.1% from -0.8%. Feb's retail sales ex-autos rose by 0.3% MoM, missing market expectations of 0.5%, with Jan's figure revised down to -0.8% from -0.6%.
• February's US PPI report rose by 1.6% YoY, beating market expectations of 1.2%, and up from January's revised 1.0% (preliminary 0.9%). The Jan core final-demand PPI remained steady at +2.0% YoY, slightly above forecast of 1.9%
• Global bond yields moved higher on Thursday; The German 10-yr bund yield rose by +5.9 bps to 2.42%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield surged by +7.5 bps to 4.02% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield inched up by +1.00 bps to 0.78%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed lower on Thursday (March 14, 2024), with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose +0.81 bps to 6.63%, while 2-yr yield rose +1.97 bps to 6.28%.
• The IDR weakened against the USD at Thursday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.03% to 15,582). The Rupiah closed slightly weaker after yesterday’s gains, while the DXY strengthened by 0.05% to 102.84.
• According to the retail sales survey by BI, retail sales performance in February 2024 is anticipated to rise. This is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) for February 2024, which grew annually by 3.6% YoY and reached 208.5.
• As of February 29, 2024, the government earned IDR22.18tn from the digital economy sector, comprising IDR18.15tn from VAT on Electronic Trading (PMSE), IDR539.72bn from crypto tax, IDR1.82tn from fintech tax (P2P lending), and IDR1.67tn from SIPP tax.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR100 and FR102 were notable in the bond market, with substantial trade volumes of IDR3.93tn and IDR1.94tn, respectively. Meanwhile, FR102, FR81, and FR77 saw significant trading activity.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0077, FR0081, FR0071, FR00101, FR0096, FR0083, FR0097.
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