Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities retreated on March 15, with the DJI closed down by -0.49, the S&P 500 closed down by -0.65%, and the Nasdaq closed down by -0.96%.
• Stocks declined on Friday amidst negative corporate news. Adobe's 13% drop was triggered by a Q2 revenue forecast below consensus, while chipmakers retreated following reports of the Chinese government's push for increased purchases from local auto chipmaker.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields rose by +2.0 bps to 4.31%, while 2-yr yields up by +4.0 bps to 4.72%. T-yields rose as disappointing CPI and PPI reports earlier in the week, raised expectations for further delays in Fed interest rate cuts.
• US Feb manufacturing production increased by +0.8% MoM, surpassing expectations of +0.3% MoM and marking the largest rise in 10 months.
• The US February import price index, ex-petroleum, rose unexpectedly by +0.2% MoM, exceeding the anticipated -0.2% MoM.
• The US March Empire Manufacturing Survey's general business conditions index dropped to -20.9 from -18.5, falling short of the expected -7.0.
• Global bond yields moved higher on Friday; The German 10-yr bund yield surged by +1.6 bps to 2.44%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield rose by +1.2 bps to 4.10% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield edged up by +0.90 bps to 0.79%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed lower on March 15, with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose +0.79 bps to 6.64%, while 2-yr yield rose +3.61 bps to 6.31%.
• The IDR weakened against the USD at Friday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.08% to 15,595). The Rupiah closed slightly weaker over the weekend ahead FOMC meeting, while the DXY grew by 0.09% to 103.45.
• In February, Indonesia's trade surplus dropped to USD867mn, the lowest since May last year, attributed to decreased exports of key commodities like nickel (-40%) and crude palm oil (-27%). Meanwhile, imports surged by +16%, driven by increased consumer goods and capital goods imports.
• Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Indonesia's Sovereign Credit Rating at BBB with a stable outlook on March 15, 2024.
• In Friday's Indo-GB series trading, FR96 and FR101 stood out in the bond market, with substantial trade volumes of IDR2.59tn and IDR2.10tn, respectively. Meanwhile, FR102, FR81, and FR77 remained actively traded.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0077, FR0081, FR0064, FR00101, FR0083, FR0097.
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