Global Market Updates
• Wall Street ended the trading session on a high note on March 19, with the DJI closed up by +0.83%, the S&P 500 rose by +0.56%, and the Nasdaq surged by +0.39%.
• Stocks on Tuesday staged a recovery from early losses, ultimately settling with moderate gains. The S&P 500 reached a one-week high amid robust demand for the Treasury’s USD13bn 20-year T-bond auction, which drove T-note yields lower and spurred short covering in equities. Furthermore, a rally in WTI crude oil to a four-and-a-half-month high fueled advances in energy stocks, further boosting the overall market.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields fell by -4.0 bps to 4.30%, while 2-yr yields slipped by -5.0 bps to 4.68%.
• Markets are focused on the 2-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday, expecting insight into potential interest rate cuts from updated Fed projections.
• In February, US housing starts surged by 10.7% MoM to 1.521mn, surpassing expectations of 1.440mn. Feb building permits rose by 1.9% to a six-month high of 1.518mn, exceeding expectations.
• In Japan, the BOJ has voted 7-2 to end its yield curve control program and shift from negative interest rates to a new policy rate range of 0% to 0.1%. Despite BOJ's rate hike, yen fell to a two-week low as Governor Ueda reaffirmed accommodative policy stance.
• Global bond yields are mixed on Tuesday; The German 10-yr bund yield surged by +1.8 bps to 2.46%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield fell by -1.2 bps to 4.09% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed down by -1.90 bps to 0.77%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed lower on March 19, with the 10-yr benchmark yield edged up by +0.04 bps to 6.64%, while 2-yr yield fell -0.96 bps to 6.33%.
• The IDR depreciated against the USD at Tuesday’s close (USD/IDR rose by +0.16% to 15,715). Uncertainties over the Fed's rate cut timing have strained the Rupiah, while IDR23.41tn in foreign net sales have exited domestic bonds this year.
• The SBSN auction gained positive response yesterday, garnered a total incoming bid of IDR21.06tn, higher than the previous IDR17.05tn. Meanwhile, PBS032 secured the highest awarded amount of IDR3.85tn out of the total awarded sum of IDR12.0tn.
• BI will conduct an RDG meeting today, during which it is expected to announce its decision to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR102 and PBS30 garnered significant attention in the bond market, with substantial trade volumes of IDR1.49tn and IDR1.36tn, respectively. Meanwhile, FR102, FR81, and FR77 continued to maintain high trading activity.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0077, FR0081, FR0064, FR00101, FR0068, FR0098, FR0083, FR0097.
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