Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities ended lower on March 26, with the DJI closed down by -0.08%, the S&P 500 fell by -0.28%, and the Nasdaq declined by -0.42%.
• On Tuesday, stock indexes surrendered an early advance and registered moderate losses. Nvidia's decline of more than -2% triggered a downturn in chip stocks, exerting pressure on the overall market. Economic news in the US was mixed for stocks, with new orders for capital goods surpassing expectations in February, while the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields closed down by -1 bps to 4.24%, while 2-yr yields rose by +2.0 bps to 4.56%. The 10-yr yield edged lower as investors assessed recent data and anticipated upcoming inflation figures later this Friday.
• In February, new orders for US capital goods excluding defense and aircraft parts, which serve as a proxy for corporate capital spending, increased by +0.7% MoM, surpassing expectations of a +0.1% increase.
• The US January S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index increased by +6.03% YoY, up from a 5.6% rise in the previous month, marking the largest rise in 14 months.
• The US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined to 104.7 in March, hitting a 4-month low. Meanwhile, the Richmond Fed manufacturing survey dropped to -11, below expectations of no change at -5.
• Global bond yields moved lower on Tuesday; The German 10-yr bund yield fell by -2.2 bps to 2.35%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield slipped by -1.7 bps to 3.97% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +0.5 bps to 0.74%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed lower on March 26, with the 10-yr benchmark yield closed up by +2.23 bps to 6.67%, while 2-yr yield fell by -1.60 bps to 6.29%.
• The IDR bounces back following a few days decline against the USD (USD/IDR fell by -0.05% to 15,790). The rupiah got support from positive market response to JCR affirming Indonesia’s BBB+ credit rating with a stable outlook.
• Tuesday’s SUN auction saw a decline from the previous one, with winning bids totaling IDR22.60tn out of a total bid of IDR32.34tn. The auctioned series included SPN12240628, SPN12250314, FR101, FR100, FR98, FR97, and FR102. Notably, FR101 secured the highest awarded bid of IDR7.45tn out of the total bid of IDR8.36tn
• Investors welcomed Tuesday’s SVBI auction, securing USD358mn in awarded bids out of a total bid of USD375mn. The bidding volume increased compared to the previous auction, where USD357mn was awarded from a USD367mn bid total,
• In Tuesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR101 and PBS36 garnered considerable interest in outright transactions, with substantial trade volumes of IDR7.30tn and IDR5.90tn, respectively. Additionally, FR102, FR100, and PBS36 saw high trading frequency.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0077, FR0081, FR0101, FR0096, FR0098, FR0097.
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