Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities closed with a modest gain on March 7, with the DJI inched up by +0.34, the S&P 500 rose by +1.03%, and the Nasdaq closed up by +1.51%.
• Stocks closed moderately higher, with the S&P 500 hitting new highs. Stocks rose on Thursday amid speculation that the Fed and the ECB would start cutting interest rates as early as June. Fed Chair Powell signaled rate reductions could start this year, and ECB President Lagarde suggested easing in June. Stocks also received a boost from Thursday's US productivity and trade deficit reports, which were viewed favorably by the Fed.
• On Thursday, US Treasury 10-yr yields fell by -2.0 bps to 4.09%, followed by 2-yr yields dropped by -5.0 bps to 4.50%.10-year UST yields hit one-month lows on Thursday, driven by the ECB's lower inflation projections and investors reactions to Powell's testimony.
• US weekly initial unemployment claims held steady at 217,000, remaining close to the anticipated 216,000.
• The US Jan JOLTS job openings fell -26,000 to 8.863mn, showing a slightly stronger labor market than expectations of 8.850mn.
• Eurozone retail sales in January rose by 0.1% compared to the previous month, falling short of expectations for a 0.2% increase.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Thursday; The German 10-yr bund yield fell by -1.6 bps to 2.30%, the UK 10-yr gilt yield rose by +0.6 bps to 3.99% and the Japanese 10-yr JGB yield rose by +1.40 bps to 0.73%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed lower on Thursday (March 7, 2024), with the 10-yr benchmark yield rose +0.82 bps to 6.64%, followed by 2-yr yield edged up +0.13 bps to 6.26%.
• The IDR appreciated against the USD at Thursday’s close (USD/IDR fell by -0.30% to 15,653). The Rupiah found support in Powell’s statements suggesting interest rate cuts this year.
• BI reported foreign exchange reserves of USD144.0bn at the end of February 2024, down from USD145.1bn at the end of January 2024. This decline was partly caused by the maturity of the government's foreign debt payments.
• In Thursday's Indo-GB series trading, FR96 and FR100 were notable in the bond market, with substantial trade volumes of IDR6.29tn and IDR1.60tn, respectively. Additionally, FR102, FR81, and FR77 experienced significant trading activity.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0095, FR0071, FR00101, FR0096, FR0075, FR0097.
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