Company Update

16 Mei 2024

Fixed Income Report May 16, 2024

Global Market Updates     
• Wall Street equities closed with notable gains on May 15, with the DJI rose by +0.88%, the S&P 500 surged by +1.17%, and the Nasdaq closed up by +1.40%. 
• US stock indexes soared on Wednesday, with the S&P 500, the DJI, and Nasdaq 100 hitting record levels. The stock rally was propelled by a decrease in bond yields after US consumer prices eased as expected. Additionally, below-forecast results in retail sales, Empire manufacturing, and the NAHB housing index supported the outlook for Fed interest rate cuts this year.
• The 10-yr UST yields plunged by -9.0 bps to 4.36% on Wednesday, hitting a one-month low, while 2-yr yields tumbled by -8.0 bps to 4.73%. UST’s declined following softer inflation and retail trade data, giving the Fed flexibility to consider multiple rate cuts this year.
• The US April CPI eased by +3.4% YoY in Apr-2024 (vs 3.5% YoY in Mar-2024), reflecting a MoM growth of +0.3% (vs +0.4% MoM in Mar-2024). Meanwhile, the core CPI ex-food and energy also eased by +3.6% YoY (vs 3.8% YoY in Mar-2024), reflecting a MoM growth of +0.3% (vs 0.4% MoM in Mar-2024).
• In April 2024, US retail sales were flat after a revised +0.6% rise in March, missing the expected +0.4% increase. The US May Empire manufacturing index fell unexpectedly by -1.3 to -15.6, below the -10.0 forecast.
• In Euro, The European Commission maintained its forecast for Eurozone 2024 GDP growth at +0.8%, unchanged from the February estimate, while revising down its inflation forecast to 2.5% from the previous 2.7% estimate.
• Global bond yields were mixed on Wednesday, the German bund yield fell by -12.5 bps to 2.42%, while the 10-yr UK gilts yield closed down by -10.8 bps to 4.06%. The Japanese 10-yr JGB yield closed up by +0.30 bps 0.96%.
Domestic Market Updates 
• The Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds ended higher on May 15, with the 10-yr benchmark yield fell by -3.08 bps to 6.97%, widening the spread to +261 bps compared to the UST 10-yr yield at 4,36%.
• The IDR strengthened against the USD at Wednesday’s close (USD/IDR fell by -0.47% to 16,028). The rupiah found support in the market's response to potential Fed rate cuts this year, spurred by slightly subdued US inflation figures.
• Indonesia maintained its trade surplus streak for the 48th straight month, reaching USD3.56bn in Apr-2024 (vs USD4.58bn YoY in Mar-2024). Meanwhile, exports fell by -12.97% MoM to USD19.62bn, driven by non-oil and gas sectors such as precious metals and jewelry (-34.88% MoM), while Imports also declined by -10.60% MoM to USD16.06bn.
• In Wednesday's Indo-GB series trading, FR0100 and FR0101 attracted significant interest in outright transactions, with the highest trade volumes of ID3.35tn and IDR2.22tn, respectively. Furthermore, FR0100, PBS036, and FR0081 saw high trading frequency.
Market Forecast 
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.85-7.10% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0081, FR0059, FR0064, FR0095, FR0082, FR0100. 
Disclaimer On

FR81 FR59 FR64 FR95 FR82 FR100

Back Download PDF
Copyright © 2024 MNC Sekuritas. All Right Reserved. A Member of MNC Group