Company Update

15 November 2022

Fixed Income Report November 15, 2022

Global Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year UST note yield rose 6 bps to 3.88% on Monday (11/14/22).
• The benchmark for short term rate of 2-year maturity also declined 8 bps to 4.41%.
• Yield curve inversion remained and the spread of 2/10 year benchmark stayed at -53 bps.
• US equities indices started the week with a decline. The DJI went down 0.63%; while S&P 500 contracted 0.89% and Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.12%.
• The EU reported an advancement in industrial production by 0.9% MoM and 4.9% YoY in Sep-22 (vs 2% MoM and 2.8% YoY in Aug-22), exceeding market consensus of 0.3% MoM and 2.8% YoY.
• India recorded an ease in inflation rate of 6.77% YoY in Oct-22 (vs 5-month high of 7.41% YoY in Sep-22) primarily driven by slowdown of food price hike.

Domestic Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year Indo GB yield (FR0091) was relatively flat on Monday (11/14/22).
• Indonesia’s CDS was relatively flat, at the same time domestic currency IDR depreciated against USD.
• Indonesia’s 5-year CDS stood at 105.03 bps yesterday (vs 105.80 last week).
• The IDR strengthened against USD and was closed at IDR15,518/USD on Monday (vs IDR15,494/USD last week).
• BI Residential Property Price Survey recorded a growth in property prices of 1.94% YoY in Q322 (vs 1.66% YoY in Q222). Property sales was also reported to remain resilient with growth of 13.58% YoY in Q322 (vs 15.23% YoY in Q222).
• Indonesia’s car sales was reported to grow to 23.34% YoY in Oct-22 (vs 18.9% YoY in Sep-22). At the same time motorcycle sales growth went up to 20.9% YoY in Oct-22 (vs 10.7% YoY in Sep-22).
• MNCS expects Indonesia's trade balance to record a surplus of USD4,342 million in Oct-22 with export values hitting USD24,517mn (-1.0% MoM/+10.98% YoY), while imports value is expected to rise to USD20,176mn (+1.9% MoM/+23 .83% YoY).

Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 7.00-7.20% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0070, FR0077, FR0081, FR0095, FR0052, FR0073, FR0054, FR0091, FR0096.

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