29 November 2023
Fixed Income Report November 29, 2023
Global Market Updates
• Wall Street equities showed slight gains Tuesday (Nov 28, 2023), DJI rose +0.16%, S&P 500 slipped -0.02%, and Nasdaq closed down -0.13%.
• Stocks on Tuesday posted moderate gains following remarks from Fed Waller that were perceived as dovish. Additionally, stocks were also supported on the perspective for a soft landing after the release of a stronger-than-expected US Nov-23 consumer confidence report.
• US Treasury 10-yr yields slipped -0.5 bps to 4.34%, followed by shorter-termed UST 2-yr yield that fell -11 bps to 4.73%.
• 10-yr yields dropped to its lowest point in 2-1/4 months. This led to heightened expectations that the Fed would refrain from raising interest rate in the future.
• US CoreLogic composite-20 home price index increased +3.92% YoY in September, exceeding the forecast of +3.90%. US Conference Board Nov-23 confidence index increased by +2.9 to 102.0, exceeding the expected 101.0.
• Global bond yields Tuesday moved lower; the German bund 10-yr yield fell -5.2 bps to 2.49%, the UK gilt 10-yr yield down -3.8 bps to 4.17%. The Japanese GB 10-yr yield slipped by -0.20 bps to 0.76%.
Domestic Market Updates
• Indonesian benchmark series of LCY government bonds closed higher Tuesday (Nov 28, 2023), as the 10-yr benchmark yield closed down -3.21 bps to 6.67%.
• IDR closed stronger against the USD (USD/IDR fell -0.45% to 15,495) Tuesday. Over the past fortnight, the rupiah's momentum has persisted in gaining strength, largely driven by the ongoing influx of foreign capital into the local financial market.
• In Tuesday’s Indo GB series trading, FR100 and FR101 took lead in the bond market, boasting trading volumes of IDR3.56tn and IDR8.92tn, respectively. Furthermore, the most actively traded were FR89 and FR100.
• Investors responded positively to the issuance of SVBI auction yesterday, successfully garnering 92% of the total indicative target of USD100mn, the total awarded amount was USD92.1mn.
Market Forecast
• Given the recent developments that unfolded within the global and domestic markets, we expect the 10-yr Indo GB yield to move within the range of 6.55-6.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0040, FR0081, FR0096, FR0100.
Disclaimer On
FR40
FR81
FR96
FR100
