Global Market Update
• US bond market was closed yesterday commemorating the Columbus Day.
• US equity indices continued to fall to start this week. The DJI dropped 0.32%; S&P 500 declined 0.75% and Nasdaq Composite fell 1.04%.
• On the other hand, the DXY continued to climb and now near its highest level of 2022.
• The oil price reflected by Brent Crude futures rose to USD96.2/bbl after dropping below USD90/bbl level as OPEC seek to cut production by 2 mbpd from Nov-22.
• Recent spike in oil price despite the slump outlook in global economy has caused inflation expectation to remain high.
• In addition, majority of Western Central Banks still on their position to tighten through rate hike.
• Yield on the benchmark of government bond in UK and Germany increased.
• The 10-year UK government bond yield rose to 4.47%, while the Germany’s 10-year benchmark rate increased to 2.34%.
Domestic Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year Indo GB yield (FR0091) increased 4 bps to 7.26% on Monday (10/10/22).
• The increase in the local currency benchmark government bond yield was in- line with IDR depreciation and weakening risk perception.
• Indonesia’s 5-year CDS increased to 158.76 bps to start this week (vs 153.79 bps last week).
• The IDR depreciated against USD and was closed at IDR15,318/USD on Monday (vs IDR15,251/USD on Friday last week).
• The September 2022 Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell 7.5 points to 117.2.
• The CCI position which remains above 100 shows that people's optimism is maintained in the midst of global economic challenges
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 7.20-7.40% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0063, FR0070, FR0077, FR0081, FR0090, FR0064, FR0095, FR0082, FR0087, FR0091, FR0096.
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