Global Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year UST note yield rose 2 bps to 4.24% on Monday (10/24/22).
• At the same time, the benchmark for short term rate of 2-year maturity was increased 3 bps to 4.51%.
• Yield curve inversion stayed the spread of 2/10 year benchmark stood at -27 bps (vs -28 bps the previous day).
• US equity indices started this week bullish. The DJI was up 1.34%; S&P 500 rose 1.19% and Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.86%.
• On the other hand, HSI dropped 6.36%, while Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.02%.
• China’s GDP grew 3.9% YoY in 3Q22 surpassing consensus’ forecast of 3.4% YoY.
• China’s Industrial Production in Sep-22 also reported to exceed consensus’ expectation, hitting 6.3% YoY instead of 4.5%.
• All in all, China’s superior economic performance is improving in 3Q22.
Domestic Market Update
• The benchmark 10-year Indo GB yield (FR0091) dropped 2 bps to 7.61% on Monday (10/24/22).
• Indonesia’s CDS slightly decreased, at the same time domestic currency IDR appreciated against USD.
• Indonesia’s 5-year CDS stood at 158.73 bps yesterday (vs 161.39 last week).
• The IDR strengthened against USD and was closed at IDR15,587/USD on Monday (vs IDR15,633/USD last week).
• BI reported a 9.1% YoY growth in the economy’s liquidity (M2) in Sep-22 (vs 9.5% YoY in Aug-22).
• BI also noted that credit grew 10.8% YoY in Sep-22 (vs 10.3% YoY in Aug-22).
• The Ministry of Finance has issued retail government bond (ORI022) of IDR13.02tn.
Market Projection
• Given the recent development on global and domestic market, we expect the 10 year Indo GB yield to move within a range of 7.50-7.70% for today.
• Attractive Indo GB series to be traded today : FR0070, FR0077, FR0081, FR0095, FR0052, FR0073, FR0054, FR0091, FR0096
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