Revolutionizing Leap Towards Profitability
Key Takeaways:
• In 1H23, GOTO reported a notable financial performance, achieving a contribution margin (CM) of IDR2 tn, accompanied by a +70% YoY rise in adjusted EBITDA, making a positive adjusted EBITDA by 4Q23E plausible.
• Every GOTO business sector saw significant CM growth: on-demand services (ODS) (+190% YoY), e-commerce (+127% YoY), and fintech (+102% YoY). This growth was driven by increase of the take rates of all segments.
• With the addition of ’Mode Hemat’, volume is projected to surge by 50-60% thereby increasing GTV and boosting its revenue.
• GoPay app is expected to gain 2-3 mn downloads by FY23E with potential features such as savings and lending which could boost profitability going forward.
• We recommend BUY with TP: IDR135/share (+41% upside), implying FY23E EV/Sales 5x. Downside risks: 1) sustained high interest rate, 2) failure to maintain profitability guidance.
MNCS Research
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