Tackling Headwinds with New Policy
Key Takeaways:
•This year, the government aims to regulate the implementation of the new BPJS premium rate. We have yet to receive an official date, however players to expecting for a rise in the fee for around 5%-10% in 2H23.
• As of now, the hospitals are still waiting for the right time for the implementation of standard inpatient class (Kelas Rawat Inap Standar/KRIS) as this policy is believed to sway back and forth between FY24F and FY25F.
• Currently, the upper-mid class still prefers for medical treatment abroad, as told in a data where the total outgoing patients kept increasing from 350k in 2006 to 600k in 2015, and have reached 1mn by 2020.
• We maintain NEUTRAL Outlook for healthcare sector due to its reliance on Covid-19 cases. We see that the back-and-forth policy and regulation are restricting the expansion of the sector. However, there are still some companies which we believe to still possess the potential to perform in FY23F with their bargaining power in the sector, such as: HEAL IJ (BUY; TP: IDR1,730) and MIKA IJ (BUY; TP: IDR3,160). Risks: 1) IDR depreciation; 2) Regulation.
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