Global Disinflation is Coming Underway
Key Takeaways
• We believe global disinflation is coming underway, Signs of slowing inflation are already seen. Subdued economic performance is inevitable and has become global macro theme for 2023.
• Signs of global disinflation : 1) consensus forecasts expect lower output growth in 2023; 2) manufacturing activities in the major economies contracted in 4Q22; 3) lower oil price despite production cut; 4) subdued trade activity even after improving supply chain condition.
• Given the unfavorable macroeconomic condition recently, markets start to anticipate that end of rate hikes cycle to end anytime soon in 1H23F.
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