Key Takeaways :
• MDKA aims to expand into the nickel matte and MHP product lines through MBM. To unveil its true value, MBM is planned for IPO in 2Q23. Their resource of 1.1bn dmt nickel is estimated to yield an R/P of c. 37 years. Coupled with soaring nickel demand and prudent cash cost management, the company’s margins should substantially increase going forward.
• Gold's glistening outlook is driven by FFR hike slowdown, increasing demand from central banks, and potentially strong jewelry demands. We expect gold's revenue to pick up by 24% YoY to USD265 mn in FY23F.
• Nickel dominates c. 72% of MDKA's revenue and has lucrative prospects driven by from the development of EV ecosystem and renewable energy projects. Nickel's revenue's projected to skyrocket by 90% YoY to USD931 mn in FY23F.
• Copper's demand is to remain stable and is greatly benefited from China’s reopening and the advent of green energy. Copper's revenue is projected to grow by 4.8% YoY to USD155 mn in FY23F.
• We account the promising outlooks into MDKA's revenue projection of USD868 mn in FY22E (+128% YoY), USD1,370 mn in FY23F (+58% YoY) and USD1,801 mn in FY24F (+31% YoY).
• We initiate coverage on MDKA with a BUY rating and TP of IDR5,560/share implying 16x EV/EBITDA and is currently traded close to STD+1 of its 4-year EV/EBITDA mean.
• Downside risks : 1) persistently high US inflation rate, delaying the FFR reversal and 2) China’s slower than expected economic recovery.
Read MNCS MDKA Initiate Report at : https://tinyurl.com/MNCS-Initiate-MDKA
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