MNCS Morning Navigator
June 21, 2021
Global Market Highlight
DJIA dropped by (-1.58%) on Friday (18/06), followed by S&P 500 (-1.31%), and Nasdaq (-0.92%). The Wall Street relatively trending downward after the Wednesday policy update from The Fed. The movement was weighted after Friday morning comments from St. Louis The Fed President James Bullard, who said The Fed could raise rates as soon as next year. The market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Chicago Fed National Activity Index YoY; 2) Euro Area ECB President Lagarde Speech; 3) Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
Domestic Update
• National motorcycle distribution increased by 1,065.7% YoY in May to 254,710 units, but lower 46.1% MoM than previous month 472,889 units. MNCS comment: The yearly-basis increase in May was due to a low-based effect, translated to 21,851 units. Although vehicle loan interest rates fell by 21 bps YoY in March-2021, we estimate that the demand for motorcycles this year will suffered to increase to pre-Covid-19 levels due to the prolonged pandemic.
• National Covid-19 cases daily infection rose 13.737, the highest figure since February 2021. MNCS Comment: Daily infection and mortality increase amid the widespread of new SARS-CoV-2 variants seem to be the biggest downside risk for Indonesia economic outlook. If the government impose a strict measure of PSBB again to contain the outbreak the bleak outlook might await for Q321.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 5,582 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.
Company News
1. BSDE IJ posted revenue of IDR1.67 trillion in 1Q21, up +11.6% YoY (vs IDR1.49 trillion in 1Q20). However, COGS fell from IDR452.65 billion in 1Q20 to IDR446.75 billion in 1Q21. BSDE posted a net profit of IDR588.29 billion in 1Q21 which was up +126.6% YoY (vs IDR259.65 billion in 1Q20) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Marketing sales that grew optimally and the efficiency carried out had a tremendous impact in 1Q21. BSDE is trading at 8.86x/0.86x PE/PBV.
2. GOOD IJ will distribute FY20 cash dividends of around IDR18/share or reaching IDR131.92 billion of the total FY20 net profit of IDR259.41 billion (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: GOOD's dividend distribution ratio is 50.85% of FY20 net profit, while the dividend yield offered is 0.99%, this value is lower than FY19's yield of 2.14%. GOOD is currently trading at 27.13x/4.95x PE/PBV levels.
3. WSKT IJ has realized a capital expenditure budget (capex) of IDR800 billion until 1Q21. The realization is around 8% of the FY21E capex target of IDR10 trillion. The majority of the capex is used for the completion of the investment toll road owned by Waskita (Kontan). MNCS Comment: WSKT remains focused on optimizing capex in the midst of the pandemic situation. WSKT is also plans to divest several projects and reduce financial costs to improve its performance this year. Currently WSKT is trading at 1.77x PBV levels.
IHSG Updates
JCI fell by (-1.01%) to 6,007.12 on Friday (18/06) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR192.71 billion. JCI was weakened along with most sector, led by basic industry (-2.28%), transport (-2.17%), and energy (-2.12%). On the other hand, technology sector managed to strengthen by +0.12%. JCI weakened as market concerns rise on Fed's rate early hike next year as well as potentially reduced QE. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was weakening at IDR14,375. We estimate the JCI will move in the range of 5,900-6,134 while waiting for loan growth YoY data release. Today's recommendation:
TLKM, UNTR, BTPS, JPFA.
Corporate Action
Cum Dividen Date: VINS (IDR3,4/share)
RUPS: SQBB, JAYA
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