29 Mei 2020
MNCS Morning Navigator 29 May 2020
Global Market Highlight
DJIA slipped by -0.58% on Wednesday (27/05) followed by the increase of S&P 500 (-0.21%) and Nasdaq (-0.46%). These decrease although rather flat, was caused by a rising tension between the US and China as the US President continuously expressing displeasure over China’s Covid-19 countermeasures as well as commenting on the confirmation on constitution that grants China more power over Hongkong. The market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US PCE Price Index per Apr-2020; 2) Eurozone Core Inflation Rate per 2Q20; 3) Italy GDP growth Rate per Apr-2020.
Domestic Updates
Automotive sector update: Toyota Indonesia on the track to restart production on June 2nd after temporary shutdown. Production will resume at 35% of installed capacity with 1 work shift cycle. On the other hand, Honda keeps halting production due to weak market demand in Indonesia. It will become positive catalyst for ASII as rising market share in 2Q20. However MNCS views that the upswing of ASII’s stock price recently has already priced in the good news. Therefore we recommend Sell on Strength for ASII for tactical of trading purpose. (Bloomberg news)
Company News
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HMSP will record cum date for its dividend distribution on Friday, May 29th 2020. The total dividend is around IDR13.93 tn with 101.5% of dividend payout ratio (DPR). The dividend per share is IDR119.8 or equal to 6.2% of dividend yield with closing price at IDR1,925. MNCS comment: HMSP is very risky to get profit taking tomorrow as the sell on news effect of dividend story. HMSP is traded at 16.89x/5.73x PE/PBV, much premium than peers.
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WIKA estimates the fall of net profit by around 25% - 50% in 3M20 and 4M20 due to COVID-19. The pandemic has impacted the operation activities and leads into suspension of several projects. As of April 2020, the suspended projects has reached 13% and followed by 23% of slow down project from total of 208 ongoing projects. MNCS comment: The negative impact is unavoidable to operational as the social distancing protocol, expect for recovery in 2H20 but valuation is lucrative. WIKA is traded at only 4.25x/0.59x PE/PBV, lower than peers. (emitennews.com)
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TBLA recorded significant decrease of net profit by -50.09% YoY to IDR101.50 billion in 1Q20. Meanwhile the revenue surged by 27.25% YoY to IDR2.76 trillion in 1Q20. The contradiction in that performance was caused by non-operating loss mainly from foreign exchange loss at around IDR154.72 billion. MNCS comment: Exclude the forex loss, the company actually still recorded good performance. However the mainly risk for TBLA currently is only at its huge leverage at 2.24x. TBLA is traded at only 7.05x/0.53x PE/PBV, lower than peers. (emitennews.com)
IHSG Updates
JCI surged by +1.61% to 4,716.19 on Thursday (28/05) supported by a net foreign buy reaching IDR436.91 billion. The upswing movement was triggered by the euphoria of re-opening economy in several countries as well as in Indonesia. Moreover the upcoming economy stimulus from developed country especially EU becomes the booster for JCI. However we remind the investors to be cautious as the euphoria of re-opening and high expectation of vaccine recovery will be haunted by the rise of geopolitical tension. China approves Hongkong security legislation issues and territorial disputes in South China Sea will put different color to JCI movement in June’2020. We recommend profit taking for stocks in banking, automotive and selected consumer sector. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate against the USD was depreciated at IDR14,715. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 4,650-4,750 while waiting for the Money Supply data of Apr-2020. Today's recommendation: JPFA, BRPT, BBCA, ASII.
Corporate Action
Ex Dividend Date: PGAS
Cum Dividend Date: HMSP
Recording Dividend Date: AMRT
Disclaimer On
JPFA,
BRPT,
BBCA,
ASII,
HMSP,
WIKA,
TBLA
