MNCS Morning Navigator

01 April 2024

MNCS Morning Navigator April 1, 2024

Global Market Highlights
Wall Street was closed on Friday (29/03) commemorating Good Friday, after the S&P 500 (+0.11%) posted new all-time highs on Thursday (28/03), followed by DJI uptick of +0.12% while Nasdaq slid -0.12%. Wall Street ended last week on a mixed note, where stocks regained support on the up-revised 4Q23 GDP report to +3.4% QoQ (vs unrevised +3.2% QoQ). Additionally, the 4Q23 core PCE price index having revised lower to +2.0% QoQ (vs unrevised +2.1% QoQ) also rekindled the market's faith that soft landing is plausible. Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) China Caixin Manufacturing PMI Mar-24; 2) US ISM Manufacturing PMI Mar-24; 3) Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 1Q24.

Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia reported that based on transactions from March 25-27, 2024, non-residents in the domestic financial market recorded a net sell of IDR1.36 trillion, consisting of a net buy of IDR0.97 trillion in SBN, a net sell of IDR1.59 trillion in the stock market, and a net sell of IDR0.74 trillion in the SRBI. MNCS Comment: We observe the total foreign outflow has decreased (vs IDR6.68 trillion in the period of 18-21 March), following the declining trend in US Treasury Yield. On a YTD basis up to March 27,2024, the foreign flows have recorded a net sell in the SBN market (IDR33.31 trillion), accompanied by net purchases in the stock market (IDR28.90 trillion) and the SRBI (IDR20.05 trillion).

Company News
1. ASSA IJ recorded net profit growth of +424.3% YoY, reaching IDR 19.4 billion in FY23 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Even though the FY23 revenue achievement decreased -24.4% YoY to IDR 4.4 trillion, the company managed to implement efficiencies and cut the cost of revenue by -30.5% YoY and achieved a GPM of 25.1% (vs 18.4% in FY22). Efficiencies in sales expenses and administrative expenses were also made so that OPM increased to 7.3% (vs. 4.6% in FY22). ASSA is currently trading at 27.60x/1.54x PER/PBV.
2. MAPI IJ recorded a net profit of IDR1.9 trillion in FY23, or went down by -10.6% YoY (vs IDR2.1 trillion in FY22) (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Excluding the one-off gain in FY22, we calculate MAPI's core profit still grew by +4.3% YoY. The net profit realization in FY23 is in-line with our estimate, reflecting 96.8% of the FY23 target. Meanwhile, revenue grew by +23.7% YoY to IDR33.3 trillion (vs IDR26.9 trillion in FY22). The increase in revenue was supported by the retail segment, which rose by +27.0% YoY. However, margins experienced a decrease with OPM falling to 10.8% (vs 11.4% in FY22), due to an increase in OPEX. MAPI is currently trading at 15.96x/3.02x PER/PBV.
3. GJTL IJ booked IDR1.18 trillion in net profit, representing a +751.20% YoY growth in FY23 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The company experienced a slight decline of -1.16% YoY revenue growth in the period, suppressed by drops in all sales segments. However, the company successfully booked a significant gain after a profit loss in FY22, supported by effective cost management reflected in the COGS (-10.66% YoY) and selling expenses (-2.17% YoY). Additionally, the gain in forex (+135.66% YoY) also acted as a cushion, resulting in a GPM of 21.99% (vs. 13.70% in FY22). GJTL is currently trading at 3.70x/0.52x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
The JCI closed on Friday (29/03) commemorating Good Friday. On the previous day (Thursday, 28/03) IHSG closed down -0.29% to 7,288.81, followed by a foreign net sell of IDR390.51 billion. Most sectors experienced weakness, led by the transportation sector (-2.92%) and the industrial sector (-1.29%). Strengthening only occurred in two sectors, namely the technology sector (+0.85%) and the non-cyclical sector (+0.74%). Net foreign outflow persisted ahead of the long weekend in celebration of Easter, where overall Asian stock exchanges also closed variously. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR 15,855/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,249-7,320. Today's recommendations: BMRI, DOID, ELSA, SMRA.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: BTPN (ID44.3/share)

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