Global Market Highlights
Wall Street closed to commemorate Good Friday on Friday (07/04). The release of labor market data has been observed to be solid, marked by Non Farm Payrolls in Mar-2023 which was recorded at 236k, or slightly below the consensus of 239k. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.5% (vs 3.6% previously). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Wholesale Inventories MoM Feb; 2) Japan Consumer Confidence Mar; 3) Japan Eco Watchers Survey Current Mar.
Domestic Update
• The Minister of Finance prioritizes health of the 2024 State Budget with a targeted deficit of between 2.16% - 2.64% of GDP, with indicators of the poverty rate at 6.5% - 7.5% and the open unemployment rate at 5% - 5.7%. MNCS Comment: The Indonesian economy is projected to catapult 5.3 - 5.7% YoY in the 2024 political year, while with the prevailing monetary policy it is estimated that inflation will stabilize in the range of 1.5-3.5% YoY with estimated fiscal revenues reaching IDR 2,865 trillion and spending at IDR 3,476 trillion.
Company News
1. IRRA IJ recorded a decrease in net profit -57.2% YoY to IDR48.0 billion (vs IDR112.2 billion in FY21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The significant decrease in net profit was due to revenue which decreased -42.9% YoY to IDR753.6 billion (vs IDR1.3 trillion in FY21), in line with the normalization due to the slow relaxation of covid-19 last year. GPM was recorded as expansive to 21.1% (vs 17.9% in FY21), while NPM contracted to 6.4% (vs 8.5% in FY21). Currently, IRRA is traded at the level of 29.00x/2.88x PER/PBV.
2. RALS IJ posted a net profit of IDR352.0 billion in FY22, or grew +111.8% YoY (vs IDR166.2 billion in FY21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by revenue growth +15.6% YoY to IDR3.0 trillion (vs IDR2.6 trillion in FY21) and expanding margins, where GPM/NPM increased to 50.5%/13.2% (vs 46.7%/5.9% in FY21). We expect this year's Eid celebration to bring a surge in revenue beyond post-pandemic levels, which is supported by the opening of a number of outlets. Currently, RALS is traded at the level of 13.41x/1.27x PER/PBV.
3. WSKT IJ recorded a net loss of IDR1.9 trillion, or widened compared to FY21 which recorded a loss of IDR1.1 trillion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Even though revenue increased +25.2% YoY to IDR15.3 trillion, the increase in cost of revenue (+34.2% YoY) brought a negative growth in gross profit to -23.7% YoY. In addition, the increase in G&A by +18.6% YoY and financial costs also weighed on the company's profitability. Currently, WSKT is traded at the level of 0.66x PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI closed commemorates Good Friday on Friday (07/04), while the majority of Asian exchanges ended last week's closing in the green zone. The positive catalyst came from the release of China's Caixing Services PMI data in Mar-2023 which was expansive to a level of 57.8 (vs 55.0 in Feb-2023) or the highest achievement since Nov-2020, supported by the relaxation of the covid-19. Domestically, investors will wait and see ahead of the release of data on foreign exchange reserves for Mar-2023, which are estimated to continue increasing. The rupiah closed higher at the level of IDR14,913/USD at the close of Thursday (06/04). We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,766-6,817. Today's recommendation: BBTN, ELSA, PGAS, SIDO.
Corporate Actions
IPO: PIPA (IDR105/share)
Cum Dividend: ITMG (IDR6,416/share), WOMF (IDR17/share)
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