Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened +1.14% on Thursday (13/04), followed by the S&P500 (+1.33%) and the Nasdaq (+1.99%). Wall Street managed to rebound as investors paid attention to the release of PPI data in Mar-2023 which slowed to 2.7% YoY (vs. 4.9% YoY in Feb-2023). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Apr; 2) US Retail Sales MoM Mar; 3) US Industrial Production YoY Mar.
Domestic Update
• Indonesia's trade balance surplus in Mar-2023 is projected to shrink -28% MoM to USD3.95 billion in line with the projected -13% MoM decline in exports and +25.3% jump in imports. MNCS Comment: The decline in surplus from exports correlates with the -9.8% MoM correction in coal prices in Mar-2023, while the increase in imports came from increased manufacturing activities as reflected from a strengthened Mar-2023 PMI as well as efforts to fulfill food supplies to maintain price stability during the month of Ramadan.
Company News
1. AVIA IJ will distribute a total cash dividend of IDR1.3 trillion in FY22 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: With AVIA previously distributing an interim dividend of IDR619.5 billion or the equivalent of IDR10 per share, the estimated remaining final dividend to be distributed will reach IDR680.5 billion or the equivalent of IDR11 per share, or the dividend yield offered reaches 1 .88%. Currently, AVIA is traded at the level of 25.88x/3.79x PER/PBV.
2. CSAP IJ targets +8.4% YoY sales growth to IDR17 trillion in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We view this achievement will be supported by the expansion of 5 new stores spread across various islands, as well as IDR 1.3 trillion capex allocation, which is mostly intended for the retail segment. We expect the building materials market to rebound in 1H23 as raw material prices decline. Currently, CSAP is traded at the level of 14.17x/0.22x PER/PBV.
3. DRMA IJ will distribute cash dividends worth IDR98.54 billion or equivalent to IDR20.94 per share (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: So, we estimate DRMA will offer a dividend yield of 2.42%. Meanwhile, the payout ratio is 25% of FY22 net profit. Currently DRMA is traded at the level of 10.33x/2.93x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.20% to 6,785.60 on Wednesday (12/04), followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR881.97 billion. The majority of sectors experienced weakening and weighed on the index, led by the raw materials sector (-0.47%) followed by the energy sector (-0.39%). On the other hand, the sector leading the strengthening was the technology sector (+0.39%) followed by the infrastructure sector (+0.34%). The weakening of the index was in line with some Asian bourses, where investors were paying close attention to The Fed's FOMC minutes in Mar-2023 which projected a mild recession in FY23E. The rupiah closed higher at IDR14,751/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,744-6,810 pending the release of Car Sales YoY Mar-2023 data. Today's recommendation: APLN, ASII, BBCA, TOWR.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: JPFA (IDR50/share), ROTI (IDR106.55/share)
RUPS: HMSP
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