Global Market Highlights
The DJIA retreated -0.65% on Monday (15/04), followed by the S&P 500 (-1.20%) and Nasdaq (-1.79%). Wall Street stocks gave up their early advances due to higher 10-yr bond yields on safe haven demand amidst a reigniting geopolitical tension. Higher yields were also priced in by the market on rising inflation expectations after the US 10-yr breakeven inflation rate which rose to 2.44%. Apart from that, investors also discerned the US Retail Sales Mar-24 which rose +0.7% MoM, stronger than expectations of +0.4% MoM. Furthermore, the release of US inflation data for Mar-2024 showing a +3.5% YoY increase, exceeding the consensus expectation of +3.4% YoY, could potentially reduce bets on a rate cut. Today the market will be waiting for several data releases, including: 1) China GDP Growth Rate YoY Q124; 2) China Industrial Production YoY Mar-2024; 3) China Retail Sales Mar-2024.
Domestic Update
GAIKINDO reported a -23.9% YoY decrease in national 4W wholesales sales in the 3M24 to 215.1k units. This was accompanied by a -15% YoY decrease in retail sales performance to 271.4k units. MNCS Comment: Thus, the realization of national 4W sales reflects 19.6% of the FY24E target of 1.1 million units. We believe one factor contributing to the decline is the interest rate environment, as well as consumers' wait-and-see ahead of the elections in 1Q24. Additionally, there was a disruption from sentiments regarding manufacturers like Daihatsu last year. Moving forward, we expect automotive events such as GIIAS and GJAW to serve as a buffer for 4W unit sales performance.
Company News
1. CTRA IJ posted a net profit of IDR 1.85 trillion in FY23, or a decrease of -0.85% YoY (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The company recorded sales and operating income of IDR 9.25 trillion in FY23, or growth of +1.3% YoY. This increase was driven by growth in business income from commercial centers and commercial areas, hospitals, hotels, office rentals, golf courses and others which grew +9.54% YoY to IDR 2.12 trillion. On the other hand, the company's margin was weighed down by an increase in cost of goods sold and direct expenses of +2.76%. Currently CTRA is trading at 12.25x/1.13x PER/PBV.
2. TKIM IJ reported a -62.9% YoY decrease in net profit to USD172.0 million in FY23 (vs USD463.3 million in FY22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: We observed that the decline in net profit was primarily due to a -57.3% YoY contraction in profit from associates. Additionally, revenue also decreased by -6.1% YoY to USD1.1 billion, resulting in a -5.5% YoY decline in gross profit. In terms of margins, the GPM decreased to 13.2% (vs 13.8% in FY22), while the OPM improved to 5.9% (vs 5.4% in FY22). TKIM is currently trading at 8.89x/0.64x PER/PBV.
3. STTP IJ recorded a net income of IDR917.69 billion in FY23 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The company experienced a drop of -3.33% YoY in sales, with decline in both the food processing segment (-2.81% YoY) and others (-9.86% YoY). However, the decrease of COGS (-14.62% YoY) led to a gross profit growth of +39.45% YoY and net income increase of +46.95% YoY with NPM of 19.25% (vs 12.66% in FY22). STTP is currently trading at 14.45x/2.74x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI closed following the holiday for Eid Al-Fitr. Meanwhile, most Asian markets weakened while the CSI Index strengthened. The markets fell due to escalating political tensions in the Middle East, which sparked concerns of wider regional conflicts. Furthermore, investors tend to wait and see for upcoming global macroeconomic data this week, including China’s 1Q24 GDP growth rate and Japan’s balance of trade. Domestic investors, on the other hand, will be looking forward to Indonesia’s consumer confidence survey and trade balance figures. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR15,845/USD as of April 5, 2024. We anticipate the potential of the Rupiah to penetrate IDR16,000/USD following the the strengthening of DXY due to the increase of safe haven demand for UST securities. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,244-7,309. Today's recommendations: BBCA, ELSA, ESSA, MAHA.
Corporate Actions
Cash Dividend: ARNA (IDR43/share)
IPO: ATLA
Right Issue: FREN (75:178)
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