Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +0.67% on Monday (22/04), followed by S&P 500 (+0.87%) and Nasdaq (+1.11%). Wall Street rose as investors remained optimistic about the release of 1Q earnings. Additionally, investors also positively responded to the release of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in Mar-2024, which rose to the level of 0.15, higher than the consensus expectation of 0.09. Today the market will be waiting for several data releases, including: 1) US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash Apr-2024; 2) US New Home Sales Mar-2024; 3) Germany HCOB Manufacturing PMI Flash Apr-2024.
Domestic Update
BPS reported Indonesia's trade balance performance in Mar-2024 recorded a surplus of USD4.47 billion, higher than Feb-2024's USD830 million and Mar-2023's USD2.83 billion. MNCS Comment: We noted that the trade surplus in Mar-2024 exceeded the consensus expectation of USD1.5 billion. This was supported by export growth of +16.4% MoM, amid a decrease in imports by -2.6% MoM. With the positive trade balance performance in Mar-2024, we see this as reflecting domestic economic stability amid escalating geopolitical tensions and potentially supporting the strengthening of the depreciating Rupiah exchange rate. Meanwhile, we assess that the rise in global commodities could act as a tailwind for GDP growth at 5.1% in 1Q24.
Company News
1. MTEL IJ reported 4% YoY net profit growth in 1Q24 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This bottom-line figure was supported by the revenue growth in the tower rental segment (+5.4% YoY) with 1.52x tenancy ratio and the fiber optic segment (+148.8% YoY), while the NPM declined slightly to 23.62% (vs 24.38% in 1Q23). We anticipate MTEL to meet its performance target this year considering: 1) MTEL has a good prospect during 5G technology development and relocation of the national capital from Jakarta to IKN; 2) MTEL’s capex allocation for aggressive expansions in both towers and fiber optic organically and inorganically. MTEL is currently trading at 1.39x PBV.
2. MAHA IJ reported a net profit growth in 1Q24 of +78.4% YoY to IDR73.2 billion (vs IDR41.0 billion in 1Q23) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: MAHA's net profit growth in 1Q24 was supported by a revenue increase of +36.7% YoY to IDR622.7 billion (vs IDR455.4 billion in 1Q23). Additionally, unrealized gains from stock investments of IDR11.2 billion also supported MAHA's profitability, amid a decrease in operating profit by -4.6% YoY. In terms of margins, GPM/OPM decreased to 21.4%/13.5% respectively (vs 25.8%/19.3% in 1Q23). MAHA is currently trading at 12.18x/1.91x PER/PBV.
3. BBCA IJ booked +11.7% YoY net income growth in 1Q24 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The bottom-line figure was driven by the increase in its operating income (+7.0% YoY) where the net interest income grew by +7.1% YoY and the non-interest income rose by +6.4% YoY. Furthermore, the company set a record high in its loan net growth, which improved by +17.1% YoY to IDR121.9 trillion. From a risk standpoint, BBCA successfully managed a stable NPL at level 1.9% and reduced LAR to 6.6% (vs 9.8% in 1Q23). We note that BBCA’s performance in 1Q24 is in line with our expectations. BBCA is currently trading at 4.90x PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI weakened by -0.19% to 7,073.82 on Monday (22/04), followed by a net foreign sell of IDR921.17 billion. Most sectors contracted and slowed the index down, led by the energy sector (-0.69%) and followed closely by the transportation & logistic sector (-0.63%). On the other hand, the consumer non-cyclicals sector led the gain (+0.90%) and followed by the properties & real estate sector (+0.79%). The index corrected amidst the surplus in balance of trade. While most of the Asian markets recovered, aligned with the slowdown in some of the safe haven instruments where gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday after record highs last week and easing USD exchange rate where the Rupiah closed higher at IDR16,235/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,020-7,146. Today's recommendations: ANTM, ERAA, INDF, PNLF.
Corporate Actions
AGSM: AALI, HMSP, MFIN
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