Global Market Highlights
DJIA rallied +0.98% on Monday (03/04), followed by the S&P500 (+0.37%) while the Nasdaq (-0.27%). Wall Street closed mixed where the positive catalyst came from the decline in UST yields which became a boost for the index. Meanwhile, investors also paid attention to the decline in the ISM Manufacturing PMI data in Mar-2023 which contracted again to a level of 46.3 (vs 47.7 previously). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Factory Orders MoM Feb; 2) Germany Balance of Trade Feb; 3) UK BoE Financial Policy Summary and Record.
Domestic Update
• The S&P Indonesia Manufacturing PMI Index remains expansive despite experiencing a marginal decline to 51.0 in March 2023 (vs 51.5 in February 2023). MNCS Comment: Indonesia's PMI index has the potential to continue its hike based on the acceleration of the average delivery time from suppliers for the first time since 3 years ago due to the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, and further supported by sloping inflation and the optimism of producers from all regions.
Company News
1. AMRT IJ posted net profit growth of +48.3% YoY to IDR2.9 trillion in FY22 (vs IDR1.9 trillion in FY21) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Increase in net profit was supported by revenue increase +14.2% YoY to IDR96.9 trillion (vs IDR84.9 trillion in FY21). OPEX was successfully maintained resulting in expansive margins, where OPM/NPM was 3.9%/2.9% (vs 3.3%/2.3% in FY21). Currently, AMRT is traded at the level of 42.47x/10.81x PER/PBV.
2. AALI IJ will distribute a final cash dividend for the FY22 fiscal year of IDR319 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Therefore, we estimate AALI will offer a dividend yield of 3.8%. In FY22, AALI posted a net profit of IDR1.7 trillion, or decreased -12.4% YoY as revenue decreased (-10.3% YoY), thus decreasing the amount of DPS in FY22 by -12.4% YoY to IDR404 per share (vs IDR461 in FY21). Currently, AALI is traded at the level of 9.25x/0.74x PER/PBV.
3. UNTR IJ allocated capex worth USD190 million for the development of gold mines in the Martabe and Sumbawa areas (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The capex allocation is equivalent to 19% of the total capex in FY23E reaching USD1 billion. We view positively the company's efforts to further increase business diversification, especially in gold mining which can strengthen the company's revenue stream going forward. Currently, UNTR is traded at the level of 5.12x/1.27x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.32% to 6,827.18 on Monday (03/04), followed by net foreign buy of IDR486.47 billion. A number of sectors experienced strengthening and pushed the index forward, led by the financial sector (+0.52%) followed by the infrastructure sector (+0.46%). On the other hand, the weakened sectors were the non-cyclical sector (-0.98%), followed by the technology sector (-0.46%). The index's gain was in line with Asian stock exchanges, where investors responded positively to the release of inflation data for Mar-2023 which slowed to +4.97% YoY (vs +5.47% YoY in Feb-2023). The rupiah closed higher at Rp14,970/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,812-6,843. Today's recommendation: BBCA, GZCO, RALS, SMGR.
Corporate Actions
Cum Right Issue: TBLA (IDR600/share)
RUPS: BJBR, ADMF
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