Global Market Highlight
DJIA slipped by -0.79% on Tuesday (17/08) followed by the S&P 500 (-0.71%), and Nasdaq (-0.93%). Wall Street closing was lower as investors were focused on mixed economic data and considered the economic impact of the ongoing spread of the delta variant. On the other hand, retail sales dropped 1.1% in July-21, more than the -0.3% decline expected, paced by a fall in spending on autos, building materials, and non-store retailers. Today the market will looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) Canada Core Inflation Rate YoY; 2) UK Core Inflation Rate YoY; 3) Eurozone Core Inflation Rate YoY.
Domestic Update
• Based on the 2022 state budget draft announced on Monday (16/08), Indonesia's economy is projected to grow by 5.0%-5.5% in the next year, while the budget deficit is set to 4.85% GDP. MNCS Comment: Indonesia's economy is expected to expand further next year and fiscal consolidation is set to kick off in 2022 in order to achieve the 2023 budget deficit target under the constitution mandate of <3% GDP. We remain cautiously optimistic as risks looming the outlook coming from internal and external sides. Domestic pressure is still related to a Covid-19 outbreak, while from the external side we see the high probability of monetary policy normalization taken by the Fed to start as soon as the end of this year.
• Furthermore, there was an addition of 655 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.
Company News
1. BBNI IJ posted IDR19.3 trillion net interest income (NII) in 1H21 rose by +18.2% YoY, the growth supported by the spike in total loans at IDR569.7 trillion, an increase of 4.5% YoY. Non-interest income increased by +19.2% YoY to IDR6.8 trillion in 1H21. BBNI's recorded IDR5.02 trillion net profit in 1H21 or an increase of +12.8% YoY (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Net profit higher than our estimation, implying 58% of our FY21E target. Management targets loan growth of 5%-7% with 4.7%-4.9% NIM in FY21E. Currently BBNI is trading at 9.55x/0.83x PE/PBV levels.
2. BSDE IJ posted IDR3.25 trillion revenue in 1H21 up by +38.89% YoY (vs IDR2.34 trillion in 1H20). Operating expenses decreased from IDR1.12 trillion in 1H20 to IDR1.07 trillion in 1H21. BSDE recorded IDR680 billion in 1H21 or an increase of +254.17% YoY (vs IDR192 billion in 1H20) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Residential sales are still the main support for BSDE's performance. However, recurring income is still weakening. BSDE focuses on increasing revenue from residential sales in FY21E. Currently BSDE is trading at 13.85x/0.62x PE/PBV levels.
3. CTRA IJ recorded IDR4.02 trillion revenue in 1H21 rose by +93.27% YoY (vs IDR2.80 trillion in 1H20). COGS increased from IDR1.51 trillion in 1H20 to IDR2.06 trillion in 1H21. CTRA recorded IDR483.47 billion net profit in 1H21 or increased by +185.2% YoY (vs IDR169.51 billion in 1H20) (IQ Plus). MNCS Comment: Shophouses and residences were the main drivers to CTRA's profit growth in 1H21. Several clusters will be launched by CTRA in 2H21, which is expected to support CTRA's performance in FY21E. Currently CTRA is trading at 15.82x/0.99x PE/PBV levels.
IHSG Updates
JCI fell by -0.84% to 6087.91 on Monday (16/08) while net foreign buy reached IDR555.30 billion. JCI closing was lower along with fell in all sectors , led by the techno sector (-5.38%) followed by the transport sector (-2.64%). JCI weakened due to the majority of Asian indices closing lower due to the market eyes on Delta variant outbreak. Subsequently, the extension of the Level 4 Java-Bali Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) from 16 August 2021 to 23 August 2021 also weighed on the JCI movement. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was strengthening at IDR14,373. We estimate the JCI will move in the range of 6,050-6,150 while waiting for the balance of trade data release. Today's recommendation: AGRO, TLKM, INDY, TINS.
Corporate Action
Public Expose: BBRM
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