Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +0.43% on Monday (11/12), followed by S&P500 (+0.39%) and Nasdaq (+0.20%). Wall Street gained, supported by investor optimism ahead of the release of inflation data in Nov-23, which was expected to ease to 3.1% YoY (vs Oct-2023 realization of +3.2% YoY). This development also reinforces expectations of a dovish policy by The Fed during this week's FOMC. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) Japan PPI YoY Nov-23; 2) UK Unemployment Rate Oct-23; 3) US Core Inflation Rate YoY Nov-23.
Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia (BI) reported retail sales performance in Oct-2023 grew by +2.4% YoY. MNCS Comment: The expansive realization of retail sales performance in Oct-2023, compared to the previous month's +1.5% YoY, was driven by increases in spare parts and accessories by +11.0% YoY, vehicle fuel by +9.4% YoY, and clothing by +8.7% YoY. Looking ahead, we foresee positive retail sales growth, supported by the festive season at year-end.
Company News
1. GOTO IJ has entered into a strategic partnership with Tiktok Shop Indonesia (TTS), where TTS will operate e-commerce business through the entity PT Tokopedia (Investor ID). MNCS Comment: Through this partnership, we anticipate a shift in TikTok Shop's dominance in Indonesia to Tokopedia, creating significant synergy. In 9M23, GOTO recorded a +7.0% YoY growth in gross revenue, with e-commerce segment growth at +11.4% YoY. Moreover, this deal is expected to streamline revenue for GOTO, accelerating its path to future positive EBITDA. Currently, GOTO is traded at a level of 0.87x PBV.
2. AKRA IJ targets a +15% YoY net profit growth in FY24F (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: We expect net profit growth to be supported by an increase in the trade and distribution segment, given the potential for a broad market. We view global crude oil prices as relatively strong going forward, supported by solid demand amid a soft landing in the US. Furthermore, the increase in the sales target for KEK JIIPE's land to 130ha in FY24F (vs 90ha in FY23E) could provide thicker margins and serve as a cushion for future net profit. Currently, AKRA is traded at a level of 12.32x/2.63x PER/PBV.
3. CARS IJ targets car sales of 20k units for FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We note that car sales until 9M23 reached 14.7k units, or 73.5% realization of the FY23E target. We are optimistic that the company can achieve the set target, considering the sales realization is still in line and the potential increase in 4W unit demand towards the end of the year. Currently, CARS is traded at a level of 7.82x/2.75x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI weakened by -0.99% to 7,088.79 on Monday (11/12), amidst net foreign sell of IDR627.32 billion. Most sectors weakened and pulled the index down, led by the technology sector (-7.27%), followed by the infrastructure sector (-3.38%). On the other hand, some sectors experienced gain were led by financials sector (+0.93%), followed by consumer non-cyclicals sector (+0.39%). The index weakened amidst a rebound in the Asian markets, where investors wait and see ahead of the release of US inflation data in Nov-2023, signaling The Fed's future policy direction. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,615/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 7,032-7,190. Today's Recommendations: ANTM, GOTO, TOWR, MAPA.
Corporate Actions
EGMS : GDYR
Cum Dividend : TBIG (IDR25/share)
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