Global Market Highlights
DJIA fell by -0.30% on Tuesday (14/12) followed by S&P 500 (-0.75%) and Nasdaq (-1.14%). Wall Street ended lower as producer prices increased more than expected in November-21, solidifying the expectation that the Federal Reserve will announce a faster wind-down of asset purchases this week. The US Producer Price Index increased at its quickest rate by +9.6% YoY in November-21, giving signs that the inflation pressures bedeviling the economy are still present. In addition, the UK Unemployment Rate fell to 4.2% in October-21, reflecting a recovery in the labour market as companies continued to hire amid record numbers of staff vacancies. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US Retail Sales MoM; 2) UK Inflation Rate; 3) China Industrial Production YoY.
Domestic Update
• Domestic car sales rose to 87,000 units in Nov-21, higher than the previous month's figure of 75,544 units. In 10M21, total car sales hit 677,333 units, +49.3% YoY higher compared to the same period last year according to GAIKINDO. MNCS Comment: We noted several positive catalysts that boosted domestic car sales including : 1) improving pandemic condition and mobility; 2) government relax on PPnBM; 3) lowering interest rates; and 4) GIAAS exhibition. We expect domestic car sales could reach 750,000 units throughout this year and remain below pre-pandemic level.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally has reached 49.5% or equivalent to 103.13 million people.
Company News
1. PTBA IJ will expand its coal export market to several Southeast Asian countries such as Philippines and Vietnam. The company’s optimism is followed by high demand and the potential for an increase in the ASP in the future. The company will increase its export portion from 30% to 47% (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: We see that the company’s expansion is quite good amid the increasing demand for coal in the global market. We hope that it can be a driver of PTBA’s performance growth in the future. PTBA is trading at the level of 4.95x/1.51x PER/PBV.
2. APLN IJ posted IDR1.73 trillion marketing sales as of November-21 or equivalent to 82.38% of the FY21E marketing sales target of IDR2.1 trillion. Going forward, the company will focus on developing landed housing projects in FY22E in line with the increasing demand (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: We see APLN’s marketing sales have the potential to reach the target with the stimulus from the government’s 100% DTP VAT program until the end of FY21E and the determination of low bank loan interest rates which was extended until the end of FY22E. The company began to shift from apartment projects to landed houses by looking at the potential growth in demand from government stimulus, where historically in 9M21 it was recorded that apartment sales which were the largest contributor fell -29.59% YoY to IDR835.16 billion. Meanwhile, landed house sales grew significantly +981.80% YoY to IDR540.90 billion in 9M21. Currently, APLN is trading at level 0.36 PBV.
3. BUMI IJ recorded USD666.18 million revenue in 9M21 grew by +13.32% YoY (vs USD587.89 million in 9M20). COGS decreased from USD553.04 million in 9M20 to USD512.78 million in 9M21. BUMI recorded USD63.70 million net profit in 9M21 (vs net loss of USD137.25 million in 9M20) (Bisnis Indonesia). MNCS Comment: BUMI’s performance growth was driven by the largest contribution from coal sales which was recorded at USD657.95 million or up +12.40% YoY in line with the increase in coal prices (ASP) throughout FY21. Followed by, gold sales to third parties increased significantly +1,280.27% YoY to USD5.64 million in 9M21 (vs USD408.32 thousand in 9M20). On the one hand, the company managed to achieve efficiency with COGS falling -7.85% YoY. BUMI trading at the level of 4.29x PER.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened by -0.71% to 6,615.64 on Tuesday (14/12) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR262.97 billion. JCI closed lower in almost all sectors, with the decline led by the technology sector (-2.08%), followed by the property sector (-1.32%). On the other hand, the transportation sector strengthened by +4.72%. The weakening of the JCI was still driven by the profit taking action by a number of investors due to the strengthening that had occurred during the last 6 days and the pressure on global markets, the majority of which were also closed in the red zone. Meanwhile, negative sentiment came from the Omicron variant in the UK which reported the first case of death due to this variant. On the other hand, the Rupiah strengthened towards the level of IDR14,333 in the spot market. We estimate the JCI will move in the range of 6,580-6,640 while waiting for the released data balance of trade. Today's recommendations: SOCI, CENT, MAPA, PWON.
Corporate Action
Cum dividend date: TOWR (IDR6/share)
RUPS: SIDO, DEAL
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