Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.22% on Tuesday (05/12), followed by S&P500 (-0.06%) while Nasdaq (+0.31%). Wall Street closed mixed as investors scrutinized the outlook on China's sovereign debt, which turned negative, serving as a weight on the indices. On the other hand, US JOLTs job openings in Oct-2023 dropped to 8.7 million, or lower compared to consensus estimates of 9.3 million. This addresses investor speculation regarding The Fed's future policy outlook, tending towards a dovish stance with a potential rate cut in 1H24. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US ADP Employment Change Nov-23; 2) EU Retail Sales YoY Oct-23; 3) US Balance of Trade Oct-23.
Domestic Update
OECD revised Indonesia's economic growth projection from 5.1% YoY to 5.2% YoY in FY24F. MNCS Comment: We anticipate Indonesia's economic growth to accelerate post-election. Additionally, the government's policy mix to sustain through various incentives and stimulus could act as a buffer for public purchasing power. It is noted that social assistances budget has increased by ~4% YoY in FY24F.
Company News
1. GEMS IJ will distribute the 2nd interim dividend of USD90 million or IDR237.6 per share for the fiscal year ending 9M23 (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: By YTD, the total distributed interim dividends reach USD415 million. With a net profit of USD386.3 million in 9M23 (vs USD472.9 million in 9M22), the payout ratio reaches 107.4%. Additionally, we estimate GEMS will offer a 2nd interim dividend yield of 3.8%. Currently, GEMS is traded at a level of 4.56x/3.84x PER/PBV.
2. TBIG IJ will distribute an interim dividend of IDR25 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: In 9M23, TBIG's net profit declined by -8.5% YoY to IDR1.1 trillion (vs IDR1.2 trillion in 9M22). Hence, we estimate a payout ratio of 50.6%. Furthermore, we also estimate TBIG will offer a dividend yield reaching 1.2%. Currently, TBIG is traded at a level of 32.06x/4.49x.
3. DILD IJ targets marketing sales of IDR2 trillion for FY24F (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: We note DILD's marketing sales target remains flat compared to FY23E at IDR2 trillion. Meanwhile, the realization of marketing sales in 9M23 only reached 27.5% of the target. Seasonally, we view the political momentum as a challenge for property company marketing sales. Meanwhile, we expect VAT incentives to provide a cushion in the future. Currently, DILD is traded at a level of 14.96x/0.38x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI strengthened by +0.10% to 7,100.86 on Tuesday (05/12), followed by a net foreign sell of IDR628.18 billion. Most sectors experienced gains, led by the healthcare sector (+2.32%), followed by the basic materials sector (+0.69%). On the other hand, sectors experiencing declines were led by the technology sector (-2.20%), followed by the consumer cyclical sector (-0.82%). JCI outperformed the fell of the Asian markets, as investors evaluated a range of economic data from the region published today. It is noted that China's Caixin Services PMI in Nov-2023 saw its highest increase in the last 3 months, reaching 51.5 (vs 50.4 in Oct-2023). The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,505/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 7,040-7,120. Today's Recommendations: BMRI, HEAL, ISAT, PGEO.
Corporate Actions
EGMS : INCO
AGMS : CKRA
Cum Dividend : TUGU (IDR25.5/share)
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