Global Market Highlights
Wall Street closed on Monday (20/02) to commemorate Washington's birthday. European markets closed mixed as investors will pay close attention to the Fed's FOMC this week. Meanwhile, Asian markets closed higher, responding positively to the PBoC's policy of holding interest rates on loans as a stimulus to the economy. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash Feb; 2) US Existing Home Sales MoM Jan; 3) Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index Feb.
Domestic Update
• Residential property sales in the primary market in 4Q22 grew slower by +4.54% YoY (+13.58% YoY in 3Q22), while property prices rose +2.00% YoY (vs +1.94% YoY in 3Q22). MNCS Comment: We view the slowdown in sales as the start of an increase in mortgage rates in line with the increase in the benchmark interest rate and the end of incentives, where 75% of consumers use mortgages as a purchase option.
Company News
1. EXCL IJ posted a -13.9% YoY drop in net profit in FY22 to IDR1.1 trillion (vs IDR1.3 trillion in FY21) (Kontan).MNCS Comment: Decreased net profit in line with increased interconnection expenses +87.3% YoY and financial expenses +16.8% YoY. Meanwhile, EXCL managed to record revenue of IDR29.1 trillion (+8.9% YoY) supported by an increase in ARPU to IDR39k (vs IDR36k in FY21). Currently, EXCL is traded at the level of 27.69x/1.20x PER/PBV.
2. ACES IJ targets to open 10-15 new outlets in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: It is hoped that through the opening of these outlets, the company's revenue will increase in the future. In 1M23, ACES managed to record revenue of IDR607 billion, supported by SSSG +2% YoY growth. Currently, ACES is traded at the level of 19.75x/1.69x PER/PBV.
3. ESSA IJ recorded a net profit in FY22 of USD138.8 million, up +913.7% YoY (vs USD13.7 million in FY21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by revenue growth +141.1% YoY to USD731.5 million (vs USD303.4 million in FY21), as the realized price of Ammonia increased +91% YoY to USD887/mt. Meanwhile, EBITDA grew +161% YoY to USD354 million. Currently, ESSA is traded at the level of 7.25x/2.86x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI weakened -0.01% to 6,894.72 on Monday (20/02), followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR475.33 billion. The majority of sectors experienced weakness and weighed on the index, led by the technology sector (-1.49%) followed by the industrial sector (-0.82%). On the other hand, sectors that experienced strengthening were led by the infrastructure sector (+1.15%) followed by the non-cyclical sector (+0.70%). The index weakened as investors watched the release of current account data in 4Q22 which was a surplus but slowed to USD4.3 billion (vs USD4.5 billion in 3Q22). On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at the level of IDR15,158/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,860-6,920. Today's recommendation: AGII, ASLC, ESSA, JPFA.
Disclaimer On
