MNCS Morning Navigator

16 Januari 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator January 16, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA gained +0.33% on Friday (13/01), followed by the S&P500 (+0.40%) and the Nasdaq (+0.71%). Wall Street's gains were supported by the release of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel data in Jan-2023 which rose to a level of 64.6 points, or higher than the consensus estimate and Dec-2022 realization of 60.6/59.7 points, respectively. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) Germany Wholesale Prices YoY Dec; 2) Germany 12-Month Bubill Auction; 3) France Budget Balance Nov.

Domestic Update
• Today, BPS will announce Indonesia's December 2022 trade balance. MNCS Comment: Indonesia's trade balance in Dec-2022 is expected to remain solid despite declining from the realization in Nov-2022 (USD5.16 billion) with a consensus estimate of USD4.00 billion (Median)/USD4.14 billion (Avg.).

Company News
1. ACES IJ targets revenue growth and net profit in FY23E to each reach 8-10% YoY (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We project ACES's growth and net profit in FY23E can each grow +6.7-6.9% YoY. This was supported by: 1) SSSG +7% YoY performance; 2) DIO reduction ability; 3) positive growth of the retail industry. Currently, ACES is traded at the level of 16.46x/1.41x PER/PBV.
2. ASII IJ reported car sales in FY22E of 574,198 units (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Thus, ASII car unit sales growth was +17.4% YoY (vs 489,209 units in FY21). Meanwhile, with GAIKINDO recording domestic car sales in FY22 of 1,048,040 units (+18.1% YoY), ASII maintains a market share position of 54.8%. Currently, ASII is traded at the level of 7.09x/1.17x PER/PBV.
3. INTP IJ will participate in the IKN project through the sale of green cement (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: We estimate that the IKN project can absorb a national cement supply of 1.6 million tons in FY22-24F, then 4 million tons in FY25-29F. In addition, INTP's cement supply will be supported by a factory in Kalimantan. Currently, INTP is traded at the level of 29.52x/2.02x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.18% to 6,641.83 on Friday (13/01), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR551.59 trillion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and drove the index rate, led by the technology sector (+1.83%) and followed by the energy sector (+1.69%). On the other hand, the sector that experienced weakness was the infrastructure sector (-0.57%) and was followed by the cyclical sector (-0.43%). The strengthening of the index was in line with the strengthening of Wall Street and Asian stock exchanges. We see investors tend to be optimistic ahead of the release of the Dec-2022 trade balance data which is expected to remain solid. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at the level of IDR15,150/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,590-6,730 pending the release of Balance of Trade Dec and Loan Growth YoY Dec data. Today's recommendation: ADRO ASII, BBRI, MARK.

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