MNCS Morning Navigator

24 Januari 2023

MNCS Morning Navigator January 24, 2023

Global Market Highlights
DJIA rallied +0.76% on Monday (23/01), followed by the S&P500 (+1.19%) and the Nasdaq (+2.01%). Wall Street managed to rebound supported by investor optimism ahead of the earnings release season in 4Q22. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US S&P Global Composite PMI Flash Jan; 2) Germany GfK Consumer Confidence Feb; 3) Germany S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash Jan.

Domestic Update
• Based on transaction data January 16-19, 2023, non-residents bought IDR14.80 trillion net on the domestic financial market (net buy IDR14.49 trillion on the SBN market and net buy IDR0.30 trillion on the stock market). MNCS Comment: Rebalancing activity on the stock market to SBN still occurs along with attractive risk & return where the 10Y SBN yield is 6.63% (vs JCI +0.35% YTD).

Company News
1. CTRA IJ recorded marketing sales of IDR 8.2 trillion in FY22 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Marketing sales revenue grew +11.0% YoY (IDR7.4 trillion in FY21), or realization reached 98% of the target of IDR8.4 trillion. We view conservative marketing sales growth going forward as the mortgage rate increases close to 8% and inflationary pressures increase the cost of living. Currently, CTRA is traded at the level of 8.81x/0.98x PER/PBV.
2. IMPC IJ targeted revenue and net profit in FY23E of IDR3.3 trillion/IDR390 billion, respectively (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Thus, the revenue and net profit targets in FY23E have the potential to grow +26.9%/+50.0% YoY, respectively from the FY22 target. Meanwhile, until 9M22 realized revenue and net profit were respectively 78.0%/79.2%. Going forward, the company's performance will be supported by product innovations such as uPVC ceilings and others. Currently, IMPC is traded at the level of 65.93x/11.59x PER/PBV.
3. BUMI IJ targeted coal production of 81.4 million tons in FY23E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The production target has been revised up from the previous 80 million tons in FY23E. Meanwhile, until 9M22, the total production reached 53.7 million tonnes or realization reached 76.7% of the FY22 target of 70 million tonnes. We see that the effect of the low La Nina climate in 1H23 can boost the company's production. Currently, BUMI is traded at the level of 7.90x PER.

IHSG Updates
JCI closed on Monday (23/01) due to Chinese New Year holidays, while on Friday (20/01), JCI closed up +0.81% to a level of 6,874.93 followed by net foreign buy reaching IDR331.59 billion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and drove the index rate, led by the energy sector (+2.44%) followed by the industrial sector (+0.98%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced weakness were led by the health sector (-0.92%) followed by the infrastructure sector (-0.37%). We see that investors have responded positively to China's central bank, which has maintained lending rates so that it has become a stimulus for economic growth amidst global uncertainty. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed higher at the level of IDR15,075/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,760-6,990 pending the release of M2 Money Supply YoY Dec data. Today's recommendation: BBRI, EXCL, INKP, ANTM.

Corporate Actions
IPO: PEVE (IDR149/share)

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