Global Market Highlights
DJIA strengthened by +1.37% on Wednesday (27/07), followed by the S&P 500 (+2.62%) and the Nasdaq (+4.06%). Investors responded positively to the +75 bps Fed rate hike (FFR) which was in line with market participants' expectations. The Fed's statement explaining the state of the economy that is still far from recession and the creation of jobs that continues to increase, managed to ease investors' concerns about the current global uncertainty. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv; 2) US Continuing Jobless Claims; 3) Germany Inflation Rate YoY Prel.
Domestic Update
• APBN recorded a surplus for 6 consecutive months. The fiscal surplus was recorded at IDR73.6 trillion as of Jun-22 (0.39% of GDP). MNCS Comment: The APBN surplus was caused by: 1) state revenue grew +48.5% YoY & 2) state expenditure reached 40% of the target. In the future, we view that the budget surplus will shrink as the government accelerates its spending, mainly triggered by the swelling burden of subsidies.
• Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 6,438 active cases (27/07).
Company News
1. BBRI IJ recorded a consolidated interest income in 1H22 to rise +17.56% YoY to IDR64.6 trillion (vs IDR54.96 trillion in 1H21). Meanwhile, consolidated net profit increased +98.7% YoY to IDR24.79 trillion (vs IDR12.47 trillion in 1H21) (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: On a consolidated basis, net interest income grew +17.86% YoY to IDR65.47 trillion in 1H22, consolidated revenue growth was in line with consolidated loans growth by +5.69% YoY to IDR1,051.04 trillion (vs IDR994.42 trillion in 1H21). Furthermore, NIM increased to 7.35% in 1H22 (vs 7.02% in 1H21) and LDR grew to 88.95% (vs. 84.52% in 1H21. Efficiency was seen from CIR in 1H22 which fell to 37.11% (vs 39.78% in 1H21). BBRI is currently traded at the level of 2.40x PBV.
2. MEDC IJ will distribute cash dividends of USD35 million (~IDR525 billion) or IDR15-20 per share. In FY21, the company posted a net profit of USD47.01 million, from a net loss in FY20 of USD192.82 million (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Therefore, MEDC offers a dividend yield of 2.50%-3.33%. Meanwhile, the payout ratio is 74.44%. MEDC is currently traded at 2.92x/0.93x PER/PBV.
3. CTRA IJ will distribute cash dividends of IDR260 billion or equivalent to IDR14 per share, which translates to a payout ratio of 15% of FY21 net profit (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Thus, CTRA offers a dividend yield of 1.61%, an increase in payout ratio from FY20 with 11.97%, in line with an increase in net profit of +31.39% YoY in FY21. Currently, CTRA is traded at 9.59x/0.93x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened by +0.39% to 6,898.22 on Wednesday (27/07), followed by net foreign buy which reached IDR38.93 billion. The majority of sectors experienced strengthening and boosted the index rate, led by the energy sector (+2.41%) followed by the industrial sector (+1.37%). On the other hand, the weaker sectors were led by the non-cyclical sector (-0.55%) followed by the financial sector (-0.37%). The strengthening of the index was supported by the strengthening of a number of commodity prices such as coal and CPO. Moreover, Investors' optimism regarding the Fed rate hike (FFR) , which was expected to be in line with the consensus at +75 bps amid rising US inflation rate (+9.1% in Jun-22), managed to push the index up. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at IDR15,012/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 6,850-6,900. Today's recommendation: ADRO, CPRO, PGAS, TOBA.
Corporate Action
Cum Dividend: ELSA (IDR7.45/share), BIKE (IDR3.8/share), SHIP (IDR17/share)
Disclaimer On
