MNCS Morning Navigator

15 Maret 2024

MNCS Morning Navigator March 15, 2024

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.35% on Thursday (14/03), Wall Street corrected following worrisome macroeconomic data, where PPI in Feb-2024 experienced an increase of +1.6% YoY (vs consensus at +1.1% YoY). On the other hand, retail sales in Feb-2024 only grew by +0.6% MoM, falling below the consensus estimate of +0.8% MoM. Additionally, the labor market remained solid, with initial jobless claims as of March 9 at 209k (vs 218k consensus). Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) China House Price Index YoY Feb-2024; 2) US Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel Mar-2024; 3) US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Domestic Update
Retail Sales in Indonesia grew by 1.1% YoY in Jan-2024, increased from 0.2% YoY in Dec-2023 and beat the forecast of 0.8% YoY. MNCS Comment: This performance marks the eighth consecutive month of growth in retail sales, despite a 3.5% decrease in retail turnover on a monthly basis following the normalization of public demand after the conclusion of Christmas and New Year events, as well as adverse weather conditions. Furthermore, the retail sales performance in Feb-2024 is expected to grow, aligning with the rise in community activities during the period of Chinese New Year National Religious Day (HKBN), the 2024 election, and the preparation to welcome Ramadan.

Company News
1. ADHI IJ recorded an increase in net profit of +163.4% YoY, reaching IDR214.0 billion in FY23 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We note that the company's revenue grew +48.2% YoY to IDR20.1 trillion in line with the acquisition of new contracts which managed to grow +57.8% YoY or reached IDR37.4 trillion in FY23. ADHI targets new contract growth of 10% - 15% YoY in FY24E, which could potentially come from Jabodetabek toll road construction projects and the IKN projects. To support performance in FY24E, ADHI has budgeted capex of IDR2 trillion for capital investment and fixed assets. ADHI is currently trading at 11.79x/0.29x PER/PBV.
2. BBCA IJ will distribute dividends amounting to IDR33.28 trillion, or equivalent to IDR270 per share for the FY23 fiscal year. DPR stands at 68.35% (CNBC Indonesia). MNCS Comment: Factoring the interim dividend (IDR42.5/share) previously paid, the final DPS amounts to IDR227.5 per share, or we estimate BBCA will offer a dividend yield of 2.2%. BBCA is currently trading at 5.25x PBV.
3. DOID IJ posted +25.74% YoY bottom-line growth at USD36.01 million in FY23 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue (+18.00% YoY) and net profit is primarily driven by the growth in ground stripping (+14% YoY) and the increase in production volume in Indonesia (+10% YoY) and Australia (+28% YoY). Furthermore, the company's strategic transformation also contributes to substantial results, where metallurgical and infrastructure coal currently accounts for 19% of the total revenue, aligning with the goal to reduce dependence on thermal coal to 50% by FY28. DOID is currently trading at 5.69x/0.75x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
The JCI strengthened +0.16% to 7,433.32 on Thursday (14/03), followed by foreign net buy of IDR1.93 trillion. Most sectors closed higher, led by the energy (+2.54%) and industrial (+1.25%) sectors. On the other hand, the sectors experiencing weakness were led by the basic industry sector (-1.00%) and transportation (-0.56%). Investors are discerning the positive retail sales data, while at the same time the strengthening of the index seems to be supported by foreign inflow as the domestic flow recorded a net sell of IDR1.93 trillion. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,582/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,350-7,500. Today's recommendations: AUTO, BRMS, BRPT, ITMG.

Corporate Actions

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