MNCS Morning Navigator

18 Maret 2024

MNCS Morning Navigator March 18, 2024

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.49% on Friday (15/03), followed by S&P 500 (-0.66%) and Nasdaq (-0.96%). Wall Street continued its correction as investors scrutinized the release of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel. data in Mar-2024, which fell to 76.5 (vs 76.9 previously). Additionally, the increase in UST yield to 4.32% amid rising inflation concerns weighed on the index's pace. Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) China Industrial Production YoY; 2) China Retail Sales YoY; 3) EA Inflation Rate YoY Final.

Domestic Update
The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported Indonesia’s trade balance position to continue at a surplus of USD0.87 bn in Feb-2024 (vs surplus of USD2 bn in Jan-2024). MNCS Comment: The surplus in this period is mainly sourced from a surplus of the non-oil and non-gas trade balance of USD2.63 billion and positive non-oil and non-gas exports reaching USD18.09 billion. This is supported by robust exports of natural resource-based commodities and manufactured products, including vehicles and their parts. We view the non-oil and non-gas sector to remain strong, following the continuation of improvement in economic activity. Meanwhile, the oil and gas trade was recorded at a deficit of USD1.76 billion, in line with the increase in oil and gas imports and decrease in exports.

Company News
1. AGRO IJ recorded a net profit growth of +112.5% YoY or reaching IDR24.4 billion in FY23 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The Company drove its performance by focusing on developing digital banking products and services, where in FY23 Bank Raya application users grew +16.0% YoY. This pushed AGRO's digital business credit to reach IDR1.26 trillion (+37.4% YoY) and digital savings to reach IDR1.2 trillion (+94.8% YoY). AGRO is currently trading at 2.0x PBV.
2. HMSP IJ recorded a net profit increase of +28.0% YoY to IDR8.1 trillion in FY23 (vs IDR6.3 trillion in FY22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: We see the net profit increase in line with the rise in revenue by +4.3% YoY, as well as ASP adjustments to offset the increase in tobacco excise duties. This raised the GPM to 16.7% (vs 15.4% in FY22). Meanwhile, NPM recorded at 8.1% (vs 6.3%). The increase in net profit will undoubtedly have a positive impact on future dividends and attractive yields. HMSP is currently trading at 12.00x/3.25x PER/PBV.
3. PLIN IJ posted double-digit bottom-line growth at +10.02% YoY in FY23 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: On the top-line, PLIN recorded a growth of +18.53% YoY at IDR1.3 trillion in FY23 (vs IDR1.1 trillion in FY22). We view this increase to be driven by the rise in hotel revenue +25.4% YoY, followed by the shopping centre lease segment +22.9% YoY, offices rental +6.03% YoY, +and service charge revenue +4.7% YoY. We expect the recovery of economic activity can support the business’s growth this year. PLIN is currently trading at 14.99x/0.84x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
The JCI weakened -1.42% to 7,328.05 on Friday (15/03), followed by foreign net sell of IDR1.51 trillion. Most sectors closed lower, led by the finance sector (+1.96%) and basic materials (-1.82%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced strengthening were led by the transportation sector (+1.47%) and technology (+0.37%). The index corrected along with most other Asian exchanges ahead of this week's interest rate announcement. Investors are paying close attention to trade balance data which is starting to come under pressure from increasing imports and weakening exports ahead of the Ramadan festive season. The Rupiah slightly weakened to IDR 15,595/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,284-7,371. Today's recommendations: ACES, ADRO, BMRI, KLBF.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: BBTN (IDR49,9/share)

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