MNCS Morning Navigator

20 Maret 2024

MNCS Morning Navigator March 20, 2024

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA rose by +0.83% on Tuesday (19/03), followed by S&P 500 (+0.56%) and Nasdaq (+0.39%). Wall Street continued its solid gains as UST yield decreased to 4.29%. Additionally, investors also observed the release of the Building Permits Preliminary data in Feb-2024, which rose to 1.52 million (vs 1.49 million previously), as well as the Housing Starts data in Feb-2024, which increased by +10.7% MoM. The market will wait and see ahead of the FOMC The Fed decision. Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) China Loan Prime Rate 1Y; 2) UK Inflation Rate YoY Feb-2024; 3) EA Consumer Confidence Flash Mar-2024.

Domestic Update
Indonesia’s State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) 2024 scored a surplus of IDR22.8 trillion until March 15, 2024 or equivalent to 0.10% GDP. MNCS Comment: The surplus figure represents 17.6% of the target set for the 2024 APBN, but it is significantly lower compared to the surplus of IDR122.9 trillion in the previous year. This figure is the result of IDR493.2 trillion in state revenue (+5.4% YoY) and IDR470.3 trillion in state spending, reaching 14.1% of the ceiling. The increase in state spending was mainly attributed to the general election event earlier this year.

Company News
1. GOTO IJ achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA for the first time of IDR77 billion in 4Q23 (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This achievement grew compared to adjusted EBITDA in 4Q22 of -IDR3.14 trillion, and reflects the FY23 figure of -IDR3.7 trillion, exceeding management's target in the range of -IDR3.8 trillion to -IDR4.5 trillion. The company's performance was supported by each of its business segments, where FY23 revenue grew +30.28% YoY, and at the same time sales and marketing expenses were slashed by -54.35% YoY. GOTO is currently trading at 2.28x PBV.
2. BREN IJ recorded a net profit increase in FY23 of +17.9% YoY to USD107.4 million (vs USD91.1 million in FY22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by a revenue increase of +4.4% YoY to USD594.9 million (vs USD569.8 million in FY22). Furthermore, the significant decrease in non-controlling interests was the main factor in driving the increase in net profit, considering PBT decreased by -8.8% YoY. This led to an improvement in BREN's profitability, with NPM recorded at 18.1% (vs 16.0% in FY22). BREN is currently trading at 104.66x PBV.
3. JSMR IJ aims to complete the divestment of Transjawa Tollroad in 1H24 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The management announced a signed agreement related to the divestment, however further details regarding the investors are confidential. We anticipate this divestment to boost the company’s revenue this year, in addition to the projection of +58.4% rise of toll traffics leaving Jakarta for Eid this year. JSMR is currently trading at 5.61x/0.98x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
The JCI managed to rebound +0.47% to 7,336.75 on Tuesday (19/03), followed by foreign net buy of IDR761.9 billion. Most sectors strengthened, led by the non-cyclical sector (+1.08%) and the energy sector (+0.73%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced weakness were led by the technology sector (-0.89%) and the cyclical sector (-0.46%). Other Asian shares tend to weaken, with the market awaiting decisions by a number of global central banks this week, especially the Fed, which is still expected to hold interest rates in Mar-2024 and is likely to only make two rate cuts according to the latest dot plot projections. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,715/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,284-7,371. Today's recommendations: ASSA, BBCA, ELSA, SIDO.

Corporate Actions

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