MNCS Morning Navigator

22 Maret 2024

MNCS Morning Navigator March 22, 2024

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA strengthened by +0.68% on Thursday (21/03), followed by the S&P 500 (+0.32%) and Nasdaq (+0.20%). Wall Street rose as optimism about a rate cut increased, along with positive responses to economic data releases. Notably, the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash in Mar-2024 saw a slight increase to 52.5 (vs 51.7 consensus). Additionally, Existing Home Sales in Feb-2024 expanded significantly by +9.5% MoM. Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) UK Retail Sales MoM Feb-2024; 2) Germany Ifo Business Climate Mar-2024; 3) US Fed Barr Speech.

Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia released the survey of banking financing demand and supply for Feb-2024, indicating a rise in credit financing and distribution. MNCS Comment: The growth of credit financing and distribution needs is reflected from the Corporate Financing Weighted Net Balance (SBT) of 11.1% (vs. 6.5% in Jan-2024). This growth is primarily driven by the increasing demand in the Agricultural, Information & Communication, and Real Estate business fields. Additionally, there has been a 12.5% increase in new financing needs among household groups (vs 12.1% in Jan-2024), and a 54.1% increase in the distribution of new credit by banks (vs 24.5% in Jan-2024). This trend is expected to persist in Mar-2024, supported by the prospects of recovery in monetary and economic conditions.

Company News
1. HRTA IJ targets revenue growth of +30% YoY and bottom line growth of +15% YoY in FY24E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Management said it would deploy several strategies to achieve this target, including through store expansion of ~20 new outlets, as well as exploring new export markets outside India such as the UAE, Singapore, Vietnam, US and Europe. Capex provided for opening outlets is estimated at IDR60 billion for FY24E, with a budget of IDR3 billion/store. HRTA is currently trading at 5.48x/0.99x PER/PBV.
2. SMRA IJ recorded a net profit of IDR766.0 billion in FY23, representing a growth of +22.5% YoY (vs IDR625.4 billion in FY23) (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: The increase in net profit was supported by a revenue increase of +16.4% YoY to IDR6.7 trillion (vs IDR5.7 trillion in FY22). We noted a slight decrease in GPM/OPM to 50.5%/28.7% (vs 52.4%/29.9% in FY22). However, the reduction in financial expenses and a lower tax rate contributed to SMRA's profitability, with NPM rising to 11.5% (vs 10.9% in FY22). SMRA is currently trading at 11.32x/0.88x PER/PBV.
3. AKRA IJ aims for a net profit growth in the range of 12%-15% YoY in FY24E (Kontan). MNCS Comment: After successfully recording a +15.69% YoY rise in net profit in FY23 despite a -11.47% YoY decline in revenue, management is optimistic about continuing to achieve double-digit bottom-line growth in FY24E. This expectation is based on the target of JIIPE land sales at 130 hectares and a 6%-8% YoY growth in trading and distribution volume. AKRA is currently trading at 12.60x/2.49x PER/PBV.

IHSG Updates
The JCI strengthened slightly +0.10% to 7,338.35 on Thursday (21/03), followed by foreign net buy of IDR556.0 billion. Most sectors experienced strengthening, led by the basic materials sector (+1.14%) and the property sector (+1.11%). On the other hand, sectors that hinder the index include the health sector (-1.22%) and the non-cyclical sector (-0.54%). Foreign inflows were observed to have strengthened from the previous day amidst a positive national credit growth development and outlook from BI. At the same time Asian shares closed higher in line with Wall Street strengthening following statements that tended to be dovish by the Fed. The Rupiah closed stronger at IDR15,660/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,316-7,400. Today's recommendations: DEWA, ERAA, IMAS, INKP.

Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend: BBCA (IDR227.5/share)

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