Global Market Highlights
The DJIA slipped by -0.41% on Monday (25/03), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.31%) and Nasdaq (-0.27%). Wall Street contracted as the UST yield rose to 4.21%, becoming a drag on index performance. The increase in yield was triggered by the hawkish tone from the Atlanta Fed. Additionally, the release of new home sales data in Feb-2024 decreased by -0.3% MoM, falling below consensus estimates. Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Apr-2024; 2) US Durable Goods Orders MoM Feb-2024; 3) US CB Consumer Confidence Mar-2024.
Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia reported that based on transactions from March 18-21, 2024, non-residents in the domestic financial market recorded a net sell of IDR6.68 trillion, consisting of a net sell of IDR8.20 trillion in SBN, a net buy of IDR1.77 trillion in the stock market, and a net sell of IDR250 billion in the SRBI. MNCS Comment: On a YTD basis up to March 21,2024, the foreign flows have recorded a net sell in the SBN market (IDR24.92 trillion), accompanied by net purchases in the stock market (IDR27.93 trillion) and the SRBI (IDR21.93 trillion). We view the net foreign inflow in the equities market as in line with the conducive post-election condition and future governmental prospects, meanwhile the foreign outflow in SBN market is influenced with the trend observed in the 10Y UST.
Company News
1. INDF IJ recorded net profit growth of +28% YoY reaching IDR8.14 trillion (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: It is noted that the company's sales only recorded slight growth of +0.78% YoY, while at the same time the gross profit margin was supported by a decrease in cost of goods sold of -1.6% YoY. Operating profit was recorded as falling slightly by -0.1% YoY, but the bottom-line was supported by a surge in financial income by +232% YoY reaching IDR1.96 trillion. INDF is currently trading at the level of 6.95x/0.96x PER/PBV.
2. SILO IJ recorded a net profit of IDR1.2 trillion in FY23, or grew by +73.9% YoY (vs to IDR696.5 billion in FY22) (IDX Channel). MNCS Comment: The growth in net profit was supported by a revenue increase of +17.6% YoY to IDR11.2 trillion (vs IDR9.5 trillion in FY22). This attributed to the rise in average revenue per patient days to IDR6.8 million in FY23 (vs IDR6.5 million in FY22). SILO also successfully implemented effective cost control, reflected in the GPM/OPM rising to 39.8%/15.4% in FY23 (vs 37.1%/10.7% in FY22). This drove significant profitability growth, with NPM realized at 10.8% in FY23 (vs 7.3% in FY22). SILO is currently trading at 24.70x/3.78x PER/PBV.
3. ICBP IJ posted a +52.39% YoY of net income at IDR6.99 trillion in FY23 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The company successfully increased its sales at +4.80% YoY while managing its COGS at -0.52% YoY, followed by an improved NPM at 0.29% (vs 7.08% in FY22). The sales growth is primarily driven by most segments: food seasonings (+9.26% YoY), snack foods (+6.95% YoY), noodles (+6.24% YoY), nutrition and special foods (+4.95% YoY), and beverages (+4.13% YoY). Meanwhile the dairy sales dropped at -3.35% YoY. ICBP is currently trading at 18.68x/2.10x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI climbed +0.38% higher to 7,377.76 on Monday (23/03), albeit incurring a foreign net sell of IDR316.9 billion. The sectors that led the uptrend were the finance sector (+1.05%) and the basic materials sector (+0.94%). Most sectors, on the other hand, hindered the index, including the transportation sector (-0.62%) and the technology sector (-0.57%). The foreign flows pulled back, in line with Wall Street’s stalling which brew on concerns of disconnect between earnings expectations and share prices. This spurred risk offs across Asian markets which mainly closed lower, except Vietnam and India. Rupiah further corrected at IDR15,798/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,334-7,400. Today's recommendations: BBRI, MAPI, MPMX, TKIM.
Corporate Actions
Cash Dividend: NISP (IDR72/Share)
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