MNCS Morning Navigator

27 Maret 2024

MNCS Morning Navigator March 27, 2024

Global Market Highlights
The DJIA edged down by -0.08% on Tuesday (26/03), followed by the S&P 500 (-0.28%) and Nasdaq (-0.42%). Wall Street continued its decline as investors observed the release of CB Consumer Confidence data in Mar-2024, which dropped to 104.7, lower than the consensus estimate of 107. Additionally, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in Mar-2024 further contracted to -11 (compared to -5 the previous month). Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) China Industrial Profits; 2) EA Economic Sentiment Mar-2024; 3) US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change 22-Mar.

Domestic Update
Indonesia’s economy is projected to grow within the range of ~5% YoY in 1Q24, with the momentum from Eid al-Fitr as the primary uptick force. MNCS Comment: We observe that this estimation is consistent with the employees’ provisions for Eid al-Fitr (THR), which is expected to significantly boost people’s spending power. During the Ramadan festivities last year in the 2Q23, the economy grew by 5.17% YoY, surpassing the growth rate of 5.03% in the 1Q23. Therefore, it is anticipated that this festive momentum will contribute to achieving the annual economic growth target of 5.2% by 2024.

Company News
1. MTLA IJ recorded marketing sales revenue of IDR296 billion in 2M24 or grew +20.8% YoY (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: This achievement is in-line with management's target set at IDR1.9 trillion for FY24E, or reaching a run-rate of 16% by 2M24. The marketing sales target increased 5% YoY from the FY23 target. The company's performance will be supported by project development, especially in the residential segment such as Metland Cikarang and also the upcoming Metland Kertajati residential project. Currently MTLA is trading at 0.65x PBV.
2. CPIN IJ recorded a decrease in net profit in FY23 by -20.8% YoY to IDR2.3 trillion (vs to IDR2.9 trillion in FY22) (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: The significant decrease in net profit occurred amid a revenue increase of +8.3% YoY. The rise in input costs towards the end of FY23 and the decline in broiler prices affected CPIN's gross profit performance, which only grew by +1.6% YoY. Furthermore, the increase in OPEX by +9.4% YoY and the rise in the tax rate also burdened CPIN's bottom line. CPIN is currently trading at 36.95x/3.17x PER/PBV.
3. AMRT IJ recorded a double-digit sales growth (+10.34% YoY) in FY23, surpassing IDR100 trillion (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The revenue was driven by growth in the food segment (+12.36% YoY) and the non-food segment (+5.73% YoY), contributing 70.75% and 29.25% respectively to total sales. The company achieved a bottom-line growth of +19.21% YoY, despite increases in cost of revenue (+9.07% YoY) and operational expenses (+14.84% YoY), resulting in an improved NPM of 3.18% (vs 2.95% in FY22). AMRT is currently trading at 7.67x PBV.

IHSG Updates
The JCI weakened -0.16% to 7,365.66 on Tuesday (26/03), followed by a foreign net sell of IDR407.0 billion. Most sectors experienced a downturn, led by the transportation sector (-3.02%) and the property sector (-0.62%). On the other hand, sectoral strengthening was led by the cyclical sector (+0.83%) and the energy sector (+0.62%). The index was hampered by the decline in foreign fund flows, amidst a mixed Asian markets closing, while ASEAN indexes mostly strengthened (with the exception of the VN Index at -1.09%) ahead of PCE indicators reading. The Rupiah closed flat at IDR 15,790/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,331-7,364. Today's recommendations: ANTM, BBNI, HRUM, LSIP.

Corporate Actions

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