Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.25% on Monday (04/03), followed by S&P 500 (-0.12%) and Nasdaq (-0.41%). Wall Street experienced a decline as profit-taking ensued after reaching an all-time high. Additionally, the hawkish tone from The Fed regarding potential FFR cuts grabbed investors' attention and weighed on index movement. Today, the market will await several data releases, including: 1) China Caixin Services PMI Feb-2024; 2) UK S&P Global Services PMI Final Feb-2024; 3) US ISM Services PMI Feb-2024.
Domestic Update
BPS reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at level 0.37% MoM or 2.75% YoY in Feb-2024, followed by a stable inflation with 1.68% YoY or 0.14% MoM (vs 0.20% MoM in Jan-2024). Bank Indonesia expects inflation rate will remain at 2.5% with ~1% deviation in FY24E, MNCS Comment: We note that the annual realization of the core inflation is mainly contributed by the inflation of cooking oil commodities, rice with side dishes, and gold jewelry. The inflation of the volatile food group increased to 1.53% MoM or 8.47% YoY in Feb-2024 (vs 0.01% MoM/ 7.22% YoY in Jan-2024) with the deflation of shallots, tomatoes, and cayenne peppers. The administered prices group also experienced a growing inflation at 0.15% MoM in Feb-2024 from a deflation of 0.48% MoM in the previous month, with the increase in cigarette excise as the main contributor.
Company News
1. PGEO IJ posted a net profit of USD163.6 million in FY23 or grew +28.5% YoY vs IDR127.3 million in FY22 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: This achievement reflects 107.5% of MNCS estimates, with NPM of 40.3% vs estimate of 37.6%. Margin optimization was supported by financial income which grew +1,744.5% YoY and other income which grew +189.8 YoY as well as financial expenses which were lower than forecast. The company's revenue was recorded at USD406.3 million or reflected 100.4% of the MNCS estimate. PGEO is currently trading at 19.87x/1.65x PER/PBV.
2. BBNI IJ will distribute dividends amounting to 50% of FY23 net profit totaling IDR10.45 trillion, or DPS of IDR280.49 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The DPS for FY23 decreased compared to FY22, which was IDR392.8 (DPR ~40%). Meanwhile, we estimate that BBNI will offer a dividend yield of approximately ~4.8%, higher than the 5-year historical average of 2.4%. BBNI is currently trading at 1.46x PBV.
3. JSMR IJ recorded +147.3% YoY of net profit in FY23 (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The impressive bottom-line figure was contributed by a +2.09% YoY revenue from toll operation, a +20.87% YoY other operating revenue, and a +105.43% YoY of construction revenue, which respectively accounted to 65.43%/7.59%/26.98% to the total revenue. Additionally, the NPM was recorded at 31.87% (vs 16.56% in FY22), reflecting the company's efficiency in managing the costs. We anticipate the growth to continue in FY24E, following the government’s approval in increasing toll rates, traffic volume in holiday seasons, and the opening of new toll roads. JSMR is currently trading at 5.77x/1.01x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI closed down -0.48% to 7,276.75 on Monday (04/03), followed by foreign net sell reaching IDR371.1 billion. Most sectors closed in the red zone, led by the technology sector (-2.66%) and followed by the infrastructure sector (-0.72%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced strengthening were led by the energy sector (+0.24%) and the industrial sector (+0.20%). The index's momentum was restrained by foreign outflows, as investors were wary ahead of testimony from the Fed's top official, Jerome Powell, on Wednesday March 6, 2024. The Rupiah closed lower at IDR15,740/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,252-7,304. Today's recommendations: BBCA, BRPT, EXCL, IMAS.
Corporate Actions
EGMS: BEBS, POLL
Disclaimer On
