Global Market Highlights
DJIA fell by -0.31% on Tuesday (09/11), followed by S&P 500 (-0.35%) and Nasdaq (-0.60%). Wall Street closed lower as investors take a breather after eight-day winning streak and inflation remains a key concern for investors. The US Producer Price Index increased slightly by +0.6% MoM in October-21 from the previous at 0.5% in September-21 as high inflation could persist for a while amid tight supply chains. Germany released its ZEW Economic Sentiment Index which jumped to 31.7 in November-21 from the previous at 22.3 level in October-21 as investors are more optimistic about the economic growth in the upcoming months. Today the market will be looking forward to several data releases such as: 1) US Inflation Rate YoY; 2) China Inflation Rate YoY; 3) Germany Inflation Rate YoY.
Domestic Update
• Indonesia motorbike sales during 9M21 was reported at 3.76 million units. The figure was 56.8% YoY higher than in the same period last year at 2.18 million units. Industry association (AISI) expects motorbike sales in Indonesia to reach 5.1-5.4 million units in 2021. MNCS Comment: The increase in motorbike sales in 9M21 was in line with motorbike loan disbursement of IDR55.6 trillion (+19.8% YoY). We foresee motorbike sales in 4Q21 to accelerate further on the back of several catalysts including : 1) improving public mobility; 2) strengthening consumer sentiment; 3) the extension of 0% DP policy; 4) rising loan disbursement along with the decline in interest rate.
• Furthermore, the second dose of vaccination rate nationally reached 38.1% or equivalent to 79.34 million people.
Company News
1. EXCL IJ recorded IDR19.80 trillion revenue in 9M21 grew by +0.73% YoY (vs IDR1.67 trillion in 9M20). COGS increased from IDR15.37 trillion in 9M20 to IDR16.84 trillion in 9M21. EXCL recorded IDR1.01 trillion net profit in 9M21, or fell by -51.02% YoY (vs net profit of IDR2.07 trillion in 9M20) (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: The increase in EXCL’s top line contributed by data sales of IDR16.81 trillion in 9M21 or up +4.43% YoY (vs IDR16.09 trillion in 9M20). On the other hand, the reduction of the bottom line was due to a decrease in profit from the sale and leaseback of telecommunication towers by -84.12% YoY to IDR313.29 billion in 9M21 (vs IDR1.97 trillion in 9M20). EXCL is trading at the level of 22.77x/1.67x PER/PBV.
2. ELSA IJ recorded IDR5.72 trillion revenue in 9M21 grew by +0.70% YoY (vs IDR5.76 trillion in 9M20). COGS increased from IDR5.15 trillion in 9M20 to IDR5.29 trillion in 9M21. ELSA recorded IDR37.56 billion net profit in 9M21, or fell by -79.92% YoY (vs net profit of IDR187.02 billion in 9M20) (Emitennews). MNCS Comment: The decrease in bottom line was due to a decrease in service revenues from related parties which corrected by -5.78% YoY to IDR4.31 trillion in 9M21 (vs. IDR4.57 trillion in 9M20). Meanwhile, the financial expenses rose by +21.16% YoY from IDR74.01 billion in 9M20 to IDR89.66 billion in 9M21. Currently, ELSA is trading at level 28.17x/0.60x PER/PBV.
3. ASRI IJ recorded IDR1.77 trillion revenue in 9M21 increased by +60.42% YoY (vs IDR1.10 trillion in 9M20). COGS increased from IDR599.05 billion in 9M20 to IDR855.22 billion in 9M21. ASRI recorded IDR138.95 billion loss in 9M21 (vs loss profit of IDR1.01 trillion in 9M20) (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: The main contributor of ASRI’s top line was obtained by real estate business lines, dominated by houses and shophouses sales recorded at IDR1.15 trillion in 9M21 or grew by +302.67% YoY (vs IDR285.81 billion in 9M20). The increase in the top line has successfully reduced the company's net loss, which was caused by the increase in several expenses such as selling expenses, final tax expenses, interest and other financial expenses, and a loss from the remeasurement of a net defined benefit liability amounting to IDR1.77 billion. ASRI is trading at the level of 0.41x PBV.
IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened by +0.57% to 6,669.93 on Tuesday (09/11) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR1.39 trillion. JCI closed higher in almost all sectors, led by the tech sector (+2.92%), followed by the transportation sector (+2.50%). On the other hand, the industrial sector weakened by -0.39%, followed by the non-cyclical consumer sector (-0.08%). The strengthening of the JCI was driven by the strengthening of the Wall Street index due to the ratification of the infrastructure stimulus bill and the strengthening of several stock exchanges in Asia. In addition, consumer confidence in economic conditions continued to strengthen, as reflected in the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) which increased to 113.4 in October-21 (vs 95.5 in September-21). On the other hand, the Rupiah strengthened at IDR14,243 level in the spot market. We estimate the JCI will move in the range of 6,592-6,680. Today's recommendations: ELSA, PTBA, BBCA, CENT.
Corporate Action
Cum dividend date: ITMG (IDR1,218/share), LPPF (IDR100/share), AMOR (IDR61/share)
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