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MNCS Morning Navigator

18 November 2022

MNCS Morning Navigator November 18, 2022

Global Market Highlights
DJIA was down -0.02% on Thursday (17/11), followed by the S&P500 (-0.31%) and the Nasdaq (-0.35%). Wall Street corrected as the yield on the US T-note 10Y increased to 3.77%, triggered by the Fed's Bullard’s hawkish comments calling for an increase in FFR to 5-7% to anchor inflation. Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US CB Leading Index MoM Oct; 2) US Existing Home Sales MoM Oct; 3) UK Retail Sales YoY Oct.

Domestic Update
BI7DRR benchmark interest rate rose +50 bps to 5.25%; deposit facility increased to 4.50% & lending facility to 6.00% in line with consensus estimates. MNCS Comment: The increase in the benchmark interest rate as a front loading & preemptive policy to anchor inflation and strengthen IDR stability.
Furthermore, the national Covid-19 daily rate had increased by 7,822 active cases (17/11).

Company News
1. INKP IJ posted a revenue growth in 9M22 of +19.60% YoY to USD3.00 billion (vs USD2.51 billion in 9M21). Meanwhile, net profit grew +65.58% YoY to USD647.19 million (vs USD390.85 million in 9M21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Revenue growth was supported by the increase in revenue from the cultural paper segment with +47.36% YoY. Meanwhile, the increase in net profit was in line with expansionary margins, where GPM and OPM were recorded in 9M22 at 40.47%/29.13%, respectively (vs. 34.20%/23.50% in 9M21). Currently, INKP is traded at the level of 4.06x/0.65x PER/PBV.
2. TKIM IJ posted a revenue growth in 9M22 of +18.93% YoY to USD885.39 million (vs USD744.44 million in 9M21). Meanwhile, net profit rose +96.52% YoY to USD345.18 million (vs USD175.65 million in 9M21) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The increase in revenue was supported by the growth of the cultural paper revenue segment with +21.20% YoY. Meanwhile, the significant increase in net profit was in line with the increase in profit on associates with +76.65% YoY. Currently, TKIM is traded at the level of 3.43x/0.75x PER/PBV.
3. ASRI IJ posted a +54.94% YoY revenue growth in 9M22 to IDR2.75 trillion (vs IDR1.77 trillion in 9M21). Meanwhile, on the bottom-line, ASRI managed to record a net profit of IDR106.26 billion (vs net loss of IDR138.95 billion in 9M21) (Market Bisnis). MNCS Comment: Revenue growth was in line with the property developer segment's revenue growth of +55.48% YoY. Meanwhile, net profit was created in line with the expansionary GPM to 54.24% (vs 51.73% in 9M21) and the absence of bond repurchases. ASRI is currently traded at the level of 23.58x/0.35x PBV.

IHSG Updates
JCI strengthened +0.44% to 7,044.99 on Thursday (17/11), followed by net foreign sell which reached IDR161.05 billion. A number of sectors strengthened and pushed up the index, led by the financial sector (+1.03%) and followed by the energy sector (+0.48%). On the other hand, the sectors that experienced weakness were the technology sector (-0.70%) followed by the non-cyclical sector (-0.70%). The index rose amid the weakening Wall Street and some Asian bourses. We see investors responding positively to the announcement of the BI benchmark interest rate (BI7DRR) which increased by +50 bps from 4.75% to 5.25%. In addition, the release of loan growth data in Oct-2022 which grew by 11.95% YoY (vs 11% YoY in Sep-2022) shows that the economic recovery remains solid amidst the increase in the benchmark interest rate. On the other hand, the Rupiah exchange rate closed lower at IDR15,663/USD. We estimate that the JCI will move in the price range of 7,000-7,050 pending the release of Current Account Q3 data. Today's recommendation: AISA, APLN, BTPS, TBIG.

Corporate Actions
Cum Rights: TRIN (IDR900/share), BBYB (IDR650/share), BMAS (IDR410/share)

Disclaimer On

INKP TKIM ASRI AISA APLN BTPS TBIG TRIN BBYB BMAS

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