Global Market Highlights
The DJIA weakened by -0.18% on Tuesday (21/11), followed by S&P500 (-0.20%) and Nasdaq (+0.59%). Wall Street closed lower as investors scrutinized the release of existing home sales data in Oct-2023, which fell by -4.1% MoM, while the Chicago Fed National Activity Index contracted by -0.49 (vs -0.02 in Sep-2023). Today, the market will be looking toward several data releases such as: 1) US FOMC Minutes; 2) US Durable Goods Orders MoM Oct-23; 3) US API Crude Oil Stock Change Nov/17.
Domestic Update
Bank Indonesia (BI) reported that Indonesia's Balance of Payments (BOP) in 3Q23 recorded a deficit of USD1.5 billion, or lower than the deficit in 2Q23 of USD7.4 billion. MNCS Comment: The decrease in the deficit corresponds to an improved performance in the current account as well as capital and financial account. The current account deficit in 3Q23 recorded USD0.9 billion (0.2% of GDP), lower than the realization in 2Q23 with a deficit of USD2.2 billion (0.6% of GDP). Meanwhile, capital and financial account in 3Q23 recorded a deficit of USD0.3 billion (0.1% of GDP), a decrease compared to 2Q23 with a deficit of USD4.8 billion (1.4% of GDP).
Company News
1. MDKA IJ recorded a net loss of USD23.8 million in 9M23 (vs a net profit of USD69.2 million in 9M22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: Net losses amid revenue growth of +86.9% YoY to USD1.2 billion in 9M23 (vs USD626.0 million in 9M22) were attributed to a +118.2% YoY increase in COGS, resulting in a -17.7% YoY decrease in gross profit. Additionally, financial expenses increased by +156.4% YoY, putting pressure on MDKA's profitability. Currently, MDKA is traded at a level of 4.03x PBV.
2. MBMA IJ recorded a decrease in net profit of -97.0% YoY to USD677.1 thousand in 9M23 (vs USD22.9 million in 9M22) (Kontan). MNCS Comment: The decline in net profit amid a revenue increase of +201.9% YoY, coupled with an +88.4% YoY increase in financial costs and a decrease in other income. Additionally, the increase in minority interest to USD26.2 million (vs USD9.6 million in 9M22) also hindered the company's profitability. We note that MBMA's GPM/NPM decreased to 7.0%/0.1% in 9M23 (vs 10.8%/7.9% in 9M22). Currently, MBMA is traded at a level of 2.85x PBV.
3. MEDC IJ will distribute an interim dividend of USD25 million, or equivalent to IDR15 per share (Emiten News). MNCS Comment: Hence, we estimate that MEDC will offer a dividend yield of 1.3%. With a net profit of USD242.4 million in 9M23, the payout ratio reaches 10.3%. Currently, MEDC is traded at a level of 5.71x/1.03x PER/PBV.
IHSG Updates
The JCI weakened by -0.47% at 6,961.79 on Tuesday (21/11), followed by a net foreign sell of IDR338.28 billion. Most sectors experienced declines and weighed on the index, led by the infrastructure sector -3.38%, followed by the raw materials sector (-0.54%). On the other hand, sectors experiencing gains were led by the technology sector (+0.74%), followed by the property sector (+0.13%). The index weakened amid a mixed close in the Asian markets, where investors scrutinized the release of Indonesia's Balance of Payments performance in 3Q23. Additionally, investors are also wait and see ahead of the release of FOMC minutes that can provide an outlook for the FFR ahead. The Rupiah closed higher at IDR15,440/USD. We estimate the IHSG will move within the price range of 6,885-6,973. Today's Recommendations: AUTO, BBTN, ERAA, MTEL.
Corporate Actions
Cum Dividend : BREN (IDR3.91/share), NICL (IDR4/share), AXIO (IDR9/share)
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